The real estate market continues to spiral downward on its way to bottom. Every day, the press continues to report more and more bad news. Foreclosure rates are up and home sales are down over last year. "Short sale" has become an all-to-familiar phrase in the industry. The question that is being asked is, "When will the value of real estate stabilize?" Can anyone accurately predict when the market will actually will reach bottom?
The press and most others are not asking the right questions. The real estate market should not be considered as one giant ocean without tributaries, but rather as streams and rivers representing local markets that flow together to form that larger body known as the real estate market.
In some small towns, the local market can be made up of an entire town. It doesn't matter whether the house is located on "A" Avenue or clear cross town on "P" Street. Relative value would not be affected by location. In larger towns or small cities, neighborhoods would govern "locational" values. While in larger cities, two perpendicular streets may each have different value.
The type of real estate investment also reflects what market a property is in. A single family house, an office building or a mall are all different markets even if they are in the same town or neighborhood. Each property's value will depend on these factors. Is there any wonder why it is so hard to predict when the nation will hit "bottom"?
Real estate is a unique form of investment. As I have written, it takes many different forms when considered as an investment. If you consider income producing properties, then the value can only ultimately increase as much or as fast as the income it produces. The market corrects relatively quickly because the income of the property can not sustain the debt service on the borrowed funds at the inflated price. Investment real estate is a business, i.e. income must be more than expenses in more years than not to be sustainable. Consequently, you can only hype that product for so long before the bubble pops.
The home market is a different story. It takes longer to correct because it is farther away from a "perfect" market. Primary or secondary residential properties do not produce income from tenants. However, they do have expenses such as real estate taxes, insurance and debt service. As prices for these properties escalate, so do the expenses, especially the debt service. However, as prices escalate, fewer and fewer people can afford to buy the asset since, in a perfect market, they would not qualify for financing. As we saw, though, this controlling mechanism was abated by banks and government lowering lending standards, reducing down payment requirements, and having low initial interest rates on loans. These artificial mechanisms allowed more and more people to qualify for homeownership which then consequently bid up the value of homes to an unsustainable high. When the inevitable downturn occurred due to the combination of oversupply, the price of oil and higher interest rates, the boom turned to a bust and we have a falling market.
Many factors will influence when the bottoming of the broader market will occur. That question, like others posed by the press, is irrelevant to the investor. You can not time the real estate market any more than you can time the stock market. Each purchase or sale must be evaluated through the unique prism of the time, place and circumstances when it is occurring. If, after thoughtful analysis, it doesn't make economic sense, then the investment should not be made or a current holding should be sold. Too often we see what we want or hope to see rather than what is actually there.
Thomas F. Campenni CPM, CCIM has more than 35 years of experience as a broker and is licensed in Florida, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Since 1992, Tom's focus has been working with a smaller client base so that he can provide the kind of individualized service that results in greater return for his clients and, consequently, greater client satisfaction. In addition to his real estate brokers' licenses, Tom also holds insurance licenses in New York and Florida and has earned the CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) and CPM (Certified Property Manager) designations. Please visit http://www.thomascampenni.com or email him at Tom@thomascampenni.com for additional information.
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