Will Global Warming Produce More Intense Hurricanes Such As Katrina?

Although the 2005 hurricane season is finally over, the intense

beating our southeastern coastline and its residents took still

has us shaken. Many of us are also starting to connect the dots

between global warming and the more intense hurricane activity we

are experiencing, such as with Katrina this past year. Even to a

layman, logic dictates the warmer air and water temperatures may

have something to do with what appears to be a change for the

worst in hurricane acitivity along our Atlantic coasts.

Unfortunately, research indicates these suspicions may not be

unfounded. According to information gathered from the PEW Center

on Global Climate Change in Arlington, Va., due to the effect

global warming is considered to have on the intensity of

hurricanes we may have more years such as we experienced in 2005.

In addition, the center predicts this may be the case for at

least the next decade or two.

The PEW Center reports because of the link between higher ocean

temperatures and hurricanes, there is speculation that hurricanes

will increase in frequency or intensity in a warmer world, with

higher wind speeds and greater precipitation. In other words,

even though studies show the frequency of hurricanes has not

increased on average over the long term, scientists believe that

global warming will result in more intense hurricanes, as

increasing sea surface temperatures provide energy for storm

intensification.

Higher ocean temperatures may also increase the likelihood of

hurricanes tracking through the Caribbean or making landfall on

the U.S. east coast. Although the phenomenon is not yet

completely understood, a track of unusually deep and warm water

appears to have led Katrina directly to the Gulf Coast when it

struck.

In addition, a recently published MIT study provides the first

data analysis indicating tropical storms are indeed becoming more

powerful over time. The following statistics recorded by the

National Hurricane Center seem supports this data.

The NHC describes the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season as having

had "well above-normal activity," and it predicted even greater

activity for 2005. With the season at its end, the past year has

exceeded those expectations, as well as all previously recorded

activity for a single season.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30. An

average season produces 10 tropical storms, with six becoming

hurricanes, two of which reach sustained wind speeds at or above

100 miles per hour (i.e. category three or higher). This is based

on a long-term average, but there are variabilities from year to

year.

As of Nov. 22, 2005, the following activity has been recorded:

** 24 named tropical storms for the first time since systematic

record keeping began about 150 years ago;

** 13 hurricanes, with seven major hurricanes;

** The most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic

basin (Wilma);

** Three of the six most powerful hurricanes ever recorded in the

Atlantic basin (Katrina, Rita, Wilma);

** The first time three category five hurricanes have ever been

recorded in the same year in the Atlantic basin;

** The most destructive hurricane in U.S. history (Katrina).

The PEW Center informs although the average number of hurricanes

between 1995 and 2005 is probably unprecedented, we have not seen

a long-term increase in hurricane frequency during the 20th

century overall. Instead, we have seen periods of high-hurricane

activity that last for several decades, followed by decades of

low activity. (The 1920s-30s and the 1950s-60s were active

periods.) In 1995, we entered and are currently in the latest

natural phase of high hurricane frequency, which i

Laurie Huffman is a reporter for several northeastern Ohio newspapers owned by Dix Communications. She won two awards in 2005 from the Ohio Newspaper Association for best feature and best overall news covera