Iran Will Be the Number One Problem for the United States of America in 2012

Iran will be the number one problem for the USA in 2012. If Obama can handle this situation with soft gloves, then he'll show he is unbeatable in the 2012 elections when it comes to foreign policy. Iran can influence the progress in Iraq, cut the world's oil supplies and they have two powerful allies in Russia and China.

Iraq is a situation that could evaporate at the snap of a finger. After 10 years of fighting in Iraq, the US military has finally left the country and Iraq is in charge of protection themselves. Although this is the case, the US still have private contractors to protect the largest US Embassy in the world along with the CIA, FBI and other intelligence operations. The US Embassy is in the perfect locations, close the Iran border. The number of people participating in these operations are around 16,000.

Iraq's Sunni and Shiite are divided about the direction of the country, this could soon cause a civil war in Iraq. Iran is a majority Shi'a, this is the same for northern Iraq. In a civil war, foreign policy experts think Iran could easily influence the Shiite of Iraq to join Iran to over-through the government and combine Iran with northern Iraq. This could be devastating considered over 1 million soldiers from the USA served in Iraq with over 4000+ dead and 35,000+ injured. These death and injuries could all be for nothing, but who would people blame. Some would blame George W. Bush for deploying our military into Iraq, some will blame Obama for ending the war too soon, but I think ending our longest war is better than staying another 10 years. If Iran plays their cards correctly, they could really have a major influence on northern Iraq.

Iran and their influence on the world oil supplies could be disastrous for the world economy. The US threatened to imposes new sanctions targeting Tehran's oil exports. Of course Iran is not a big fan of these new sanctions, so they threatened to close the strait, which is the only sea outlet for the crucial oil fields in and around the Persian Gulf.

In responds to the threat, the US deployed the 5th fleet into the region. The good news is the Gulf Arab nations has promised to make up the difference so the oil supplies are on par.

Iran is the world's fourth-largest oil producer, with an output of about 4 million barrels of oil a day. It relies on oil exports for about 80 percent of its public revenues. So, if Iran follow through with their plan then you can see the impact the could have on the world's supply. Also, Iran in more aggressive b/c they're close to having a nuclear weapon if they don't already have one.

Iran can push the envelope b/c they have powerful allies in China and Russia. Some experts say that either Russia or China has helped them develop nuclear weapons. Russia has had a huge stock pile of nuclear warheads since the end of the USSR. The past 23 years, people think Russia has sold nuclear weapons to terrorist or rogue nations. Russia continues to find oil partners around the world and they don't care about the direction of the government. This is strange b/c Russia is very strong in the petroleum industry according to the EIA (US Energy Information Administration):

The petroleum industry in Russia is one of the largest in the world. Russia has the largest reserves, and is the largest exporter, of natural gas. It has the second largest coal reserves, the eighth largest oil reserves, and is the largest exporter of oil. It is the third largest energy user.

Russia is the largest oil producer in the world, producing an average of 9.93 million barrels (1,579,000 m3) of oil per day in 2009 for a total of 494.2 million tons. It produces 12% of the world's oil and has a same share in global oil exports. The Russian oil industry is in need of huge investment. Strong growth in the Russian economy means that local demand for energy of all types (oil, gas, nuclear, coal, hydro, electricity) is continuing to grow.

China is a different case, China has over three billion people. China is growing at a 9% GDP pace, so they need energy and land. China continues to ignore the sanction put into place by the western nations. China believe in their own survival, so dealing with Iran is in their best interest. This is a major problem for the USA. If the USA needed to attack Iran then which side would Russia and China be on...Iran or the western nations. China has the number one growing middle class, economy and growing influence in the world. A clash of the titans is inevitable.

2012 is very important in shaping the future in Iran. As long as they produce a nuclear weapon and they have powerful allies then Iran will continue to be a thorn in the side of the USA. Iran will challenge everything Obama does b/c they know if Obama is out of the White House and a new president is elected then they'll have an extra year plus to spread their agenda. No president would be crazy enough to send troop into Iran unless they want a regional civil war (Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Jordan, etc.). This is why soft gloves are the key to controlling Iran, the use of force only embolden Iran causing a black hole of destruction in the region.