Economic Status of the United States in 1950

Introduction

Emerging victorious from World War II five years earlier, the United States in 1950 was reaping the benefits of a growing economy - benefits that were actually derived out of the country's participation in the War. The destruction and mayhem brought by the global conflict also brought with it several positive contributions to the economy. Some would even argue that the country's participation in World War II actually saved it from the Great Depression.

To understand the economic boom of the 1950s it is necessary to appreciate the positive impacts that were borne out of World War II. The foundation for the economic expansion and growth experienced in 1950 and several years after that were laid during World War II.

To fund and support the country's war time efforts, it had to recruit millions of American soldiers to be sent to the war front as well as to be stationed at home. Factories had to be built to produce war materiel - guns and ammunitions, military transport, tanks, fighter planes and bombers, etc. To man the factories women and older people had to be recruited as most of the able-bodied men were at war. WWII created jobs and gave life to many industries and energized a nation. Among the industries that prospered during and immediately after the war were the newspaper industry, the agriculture industry and even Hollywood. Industries that produced transport and plant machineries also prospered. Throughout the War, women, for the first time, were given the opportunity to work outside their homes and participate in nation building. The participation of the women in the labor force started to increase during this time.

The War also provided opportunities that would later be manifested in the 1950s. Take for example many of America's products went overseas - introducing themselves to new markets.

Many had actually feared that the end of the War would lead the country back to depression. With production of military supplies coming to an end, this fear had its basis - for the entire economy was propped up by all that had to do with the global conflict.

Fortunately, this was not the case. The victory relished by the nation brought about confidence in the government and the economy. The common consumer best exhibited this confidence as the strong consumer demand spurred economic growth after the War.

Leading towards the 1950s, industries that experienced a surge in growth included the automobile industry and the housing industry, and new industries experienced fantastic births - industries such as aviation and electronics.

There was also another outcome of WWII that contributed to post War growth - the Cold War between U.S. and the U.S.S.R.

Many of the military industries that sprouted during the war continued to do big business after it. As communist block emerged as a military power in Europe, America had to arm itself against what it considered as a threat. Huge investments were made in the defense of the country. Such investments meant jobs, factories, huge spending - all contributed to the boom of the 1950s.

The economic success of the country probably influenced its leaders to advocate the replication of an open economy at the international level. This is best evidenced by the country's spearheading the establishment of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

Gross Domestic Product and Per Capita GDP

In 1950, the country's GDP was at $293.8 Billion (in current dollars). At that time, Per Capita GDP was $9,573.00 - making the United States the number one country world wide in this aspect. By 1996, GDP was at $13.194 Trillion. Per Capita GDP was at $43,800.00 - however, the country ranked only at 10th place world wide in this respect.

Post World War II scenario showed that too few economies survive the war while a great majority, especially in Europe, was greatly affected. Many developments starting in the late 1970s toward the early 2000s enabled other countries to overtake the U.S. in terms of Per Capita GDP.

As Per Capita GDP is influenced by population, countries that had significant economic growth coupled with low birth rate were able to surpass the U.S. in this indicator. However, the U.S. remains the most powerful economy in 2007 taking into consideration other indicators.

Employment and Unemployment

In 1950, the civilian labor force was about 58 million strong. Only 5.3 percent of the labor force was unemployed. 41.6 million of the labor force at that time were males, while only 17.34 million were females. By 1996, the labor force grew to about 142 million while unemployment rate as at 5 percent. 76 million were males while 66 million were females in the labor force. In the 1950s, the number of workers in the services sector caught up with workers in goods production industries. The same time also saw the rise of white-collar jobs and the strengthening of labor unions. Awareness on labor rights was on a rise. The biggest impact experienced by the labor force was the increase in women's participation in employment activities. Accordingly, women have literally poured into the labor force starting in 1950. By 1990, women's participation in the labor force would nearly double. On the other hand, men's participation would drop over time.

Per Capita Personal Income

In 1950 the Per Capita Personal Income was pegged at $1,501.00. By 2006 this rose to about $36,600.00. Though marked by huge difference in amount, it can be noted that $1,501.00 in 1950 could by more goods and services than the $36,600 in 2006 as illustrated by the CPI rates for both years.

Consumer Price Index and Inflation

With 1967 as base year, CPI in 1950 was registered at 72.1 - meaning that a basket of goods and services bought in 1950 were 72.1 percent of the price of the same goods and services bought in 1967. By 2006, the CPI was at 603.5. This meant that the same basket of goods and services bought in 1967 would cost 603.5 percent more in 2006. Inflation rate in 1950 was at a steady 1.09 percent. In 2006 the rate was at 3.24 percent.

Emerging Industries

1950 saw the emergence of new industries that were anchored on new technologies. Among these is the aerospace industry. The great success of the heavy bombers during the war emphasized importance on innovation. Improvements in engine design, metallurgy, and arms technology helped advance the industry as well as improve manufacturing procedures.

The onset of the Cold War ensured that the industry was there to stay. At its peak, the industry hired hundreds of thousands of workers in four major factories. The industry was also fueled by a $3 billion government spending.

Other industries that grew during this time were boosted by other industries. Take for instance the housing boom experienced after war. New homes meant additional furniture and appliances as well as new cars. The consumer-led growth likewise spread to other areas. The introduction of television to the masses spurred the growth in electronics.

There were also after effects in the growth of industries. As the demand for homes and cars increased, many Americans were lured out of central cities to the suburbs. The construction of better highways also contributed to these phenomena.

Farmers though were facing tough times. As people left farm lands, lesser people were left behind to do farm work. This led to a drop in the productivity of the farm sector.

Innovations and the Transformation of Business

At a personal level, 1950 saw the introduction of the first hand held T.V. remote control - a device that would be seen as a necessity in many households for years to come. Color TV also emerged through the issuance of a license to CBS Network. Another innovation is the introduction of the first credit card - Diners - also an item that would come across as a necessity in modern times.

The first pagers were also developed in 1950.

In the business front, 1950 would usher in an era marked by consolidation of large companies. Businesses would combine to create bigger, greater businesses. Example, International Telephone and Telegraph bought Sheraton Hotels, Continental Banking, Hartford Fire Insurance, Avis Rent-a-Car, and other companies.

Notable Events and Personalities

Notable events of 1950 included the following:

Start of the Korean War - influenced greatly by the U.S. and USSR at opposite sides, North and South Korea would tangle in a three-year war that highlighted the tension during Cold War regime.

Development of the Hydrogen Bomb - raged by the atomic bomb testing by USSR, the government pursued the development of a hydrogen bomb.

Senator Joseph McCarthy - started the Red Scare in halls of the U.S. Senate - making accusations that the State Department was filled with Communists or their sympathizers. The Senator's actions led to the adoption of the term McCarthyism - describing intense anti-Communists sentiments.

This period coincided with and fueled the onset of the Cold War between America and the USSR. Thousands of Americans were accused of being Communists or sympathizers during this time - Americans in various sectors of the society. History would later judge these accusations as reckless and baseless. While Senator McCarthy gained considerable media mileage at the start of his "campaigns," he would be later unmasked as a grandstanding antic who had little or no evidence to back up his accusations. Many of the people Senator McCarthy accused suffered greatly. Many loss their jobs, had their careers ruined while some were even unjustly imprisoned.

Conclusion

The end of World War II led to the end of the Great Depression and the start of a long period of economic expansion through the 1950s. It is quite ironical that the most destructive war in history would contribute to the emergence of the strongest and biggest economy in the world. The confidence on the economy was obviously brought about by the country's victory in the War. Tempered by strong collaboration between the government, businesses and the consumers, the U.S. emerged from the War a lot stronger and economically strengthened. Industrial expansion during wartime brought economic impetus that would be carried on even after WWII. The fact that most of the major economies were slow to recover from the after effects of the conflict placed the United States at absolute and relative advantage over both its allies and its enemies.

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How a Temporary Visa Works Under the United States-Jordan Free Trade Agreement

The United States (U.S.) and Jordan launched negotiations for a free trade agreement in 2000. Several reasons explain the U.S. desire to negotiate a free trade agreement with Jordan. The failed WTO Ministerial Conference in 1999 led U.S. trade officials to analyze the possibilities for a free trade agreement that would include certain provisions that are resisted at the multilateral trading level. Moreover, the U.S. and Jordan had already signed a trade and investment framework in 1999, which is usually a precursor for a FTA.

The US-JO FTA includes a preamble, nineteen articles, three annexes, joint statements, memorandums of understanding, and side letters. In addition to the interesting articles on labor and environment, the US-JO FTA provides the opportunity for Jordanian nationals to come to the U.S. to make investments and participate in trade. Under certain conditions, Jordanian nationals can enter the U.S. to render professional services.

The US-JO FTA permits entry of nationals of one party in the territory of the other. From the outset, it is necessary to distinguish between migration and the ability of Jordanians to enter into the U.S. to make investments and participate in trade. Jordanian nationals are not allowed permanent resident status, but are only given the opportunity to acquire a visa on a temporary basis or "non-immigrant" status. This status requires that the visa beneficiary return to Jordan after his temporary stay expires.

The US-JO FTA allows nationals of Jordan to enter into the U.S. to carry solely "substantial trade", including trade in services and technology. The yardstick in the FTA is "substantial trade". Article 8 does not specify what constitutes "substantial trade". For example, should a Jordanian trader be major exporter to the U.S to be eligible for entry? Or the U.S is obliged, subject to its laws on entry, to allow Jordan's traders entry into its territory for attending a trade fair or partnering with U.S firms.

In effect, the language of article 8 of the US-JO FTA is drawn from the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS), now known as Bureau of Citizenship and Immigration Service within the Department of Homeland Security, and the U.S Department of State regulations. The Department of State regulations define a treaty trader as an alien, classifiable as a nonimmigrant treaty trader (E-1), who will be in the U.S solely to carry on trade of a "substantial nature" either on the alien's behalf or as an employee of a foreign person or organization engaged in trade, "principally" between the U.S and the foreign state of which the alien is a national. This language is identical to the language of article 8.1 of the US-JO FTA. The regulations of the Department of State reads that consideration being given to any conditions in the country of which the alien is a national which may affect the alien's ability to carry on such substantial trade. Moreover, the alien must prove that he intends to depart the U.S after the termination of E-1 status.

Although US-JO FTA does not define the term "substantial trade", the Department of State regulations define it as the quantum of trade "sufficient" to ensure a continuous flow of trade items between the U.S and the treaty country. Continuous flow contemplates numerous exchanges over time rather than a single transaction, regardless of the monetary value. The U.S regulation considers monetary value as an important factor. However, greater weight is given to more numerous exchanges of larger value. Therefore, Department of State regulations do not specify an exact monetary value of substantial trade, for example $100,000, as a benchmark that would qualify a Jordanian trader as eligible for E-1 visa.

Rather, Department of State regulations leave it to the U.S Consular Office in Jordan the flexibility of determining "substantial trade" that would qualify Jordanian nationals of for E-1 visa. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the regulations of the Department of State itself read that consideration being given to any conditions in the country of which the alien is a national which may affect the alien's ability to carry on such substantial trade. In other words, the U.S Consular Office will have to take into account the conditions prevalent in Jordan when evaluating a petition for E-1 visa. Thus, the term "substantial trade will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

Additionally, the term "trade" is not defined in the US-JO FTA. The negotiators of the US-JO FTA perhaps wanted to give a non-exhaustive list of trade activities that could be conducted in the territory of the other party such as trade in services and technology. Other items of trade may include trade in monies, international banking, insurance, transportation, tourism, communications, and some news gathering activities.

The US-JO FTA also allows nationals of one party to enter into the territory of the other party to establish, develop, administer, or advise on the operation of an "investment". However, investment is qualified by the requirement that the nationals or the company that employs them "have committed" or "in the process of committing" a substantial amount of capital or other resources. In other words, the language of "have committed" or "in the process of committing" seems to require a significant amount of upfront investment such as transferring money before a national of Jordan can obtain the visa. The purpose such language could be interpreted so as to prevent maneuvering and fraud. Again, in the investment provision of the FTA, the yardstick is commitment to a "substantial amount of capital or other resources". The Department of State regulations define a treaty investor as an alien, classifiable as a nonimmigrant treaty investor (E-2), that has invested or is actively in the process of investing a substantial amount of capital, as distinct from a relatively small amount of capital solely for the purpose of earning a living, and he seeks entry solely to develop and direct the enterprise. Moreover, the treaty investor must intend to depart from the U.S upon the termination of E-2 status. Thus, subparagraph 8.2 of the US-JO FTA is drawn directly from the U.S regulations.

The US-JO FTA is silent as to the definition of "investment" and "substantial amount of capital". However, the Department of State regulation defines investment as the treaty investor's placing of capital, including funds and other assets, at risk in the commercial sense with the objective of generating a profit. The treaty investor must be "in possession" of and "have control" over the capital invested or being invested. Furthermore, the U.S regulations require that capital in the process of being invested must be "irrevocably" committed to the enterprise. In other words, the treaty investor must commit capital in an unalterable way or commit beyond recall.

The treaty investor must have the burden of establishing such irrevocable commitment given to the particular circumstances of each case. Moreover, according to the U.S regulations, the treaty investor may use any legal mechanism available that would not only irrevocably commit funds to the enterprise but also extend some personal liability protection to the treaty investor. Even if all other conditions are met, the investment must not be passive or virtual but rather a "real" and "active" commercial or entrepreneurial undertaking, producing some service or commodity for profit and must meet applicable legal requirements for doing business in the particular jurisdiction in the U.S. This language intends to prevent visa fraud.

As to the definition of "substantial amount of capital", article 8 of the US-JO FTA is silent on this matter. However, the U.S Department of State regulations define "substantial capital" as the amount that is 1) substantial in the proportional sense for example in relationship to the total cost of either purchasing an established enterprise or creating the type of enterprise under consideration; 2) sufficient to ensure the treaty investor's financial commitment to the successful operation of the enterprise; and 3) of a magnitude to support the likelihood that the treaty investor will successfully develop and direct the enterprise. The U.S regulations define whether an amount of capital is substantial in the proportionality sense in terms of an inverted sliding scale. For example, the lower the total cost of the enterprise, the higher, proportionately, the investment must be to meet the criteria. Moreover, the Department of State regulations require that projected future capacity of the enterprise should generally be realizable within five years from the date the alien commences normal business activity of the enterprise. In summation, U.S regulations do not specify an exact amount of capital that would serve as a yardstick to evaluate whether an investment could qualify its holder for E-2 visa. Rather, the regulations leave "substantial amount of capital" test to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

Article 8.2 of the US-JO FTA allows nationals of either party to enter the territory of the other party to "establish", "develop", "administer", or "advise" of an investment. These four terms are not defined in article 8 of the US-JO FTA. Again, U.S Department of State regulations define some of these terms. For example, the regulations define "develop and direct" as what the business or individual treaty investor does or will develop and direct the enterprise by controlling the enterprise through ownership of at least 50% of the business, by possessing operational control through a managerial position or other corporate device, or by other means. Therefore, an investor under the US-JO FTA must play a key role in the investment whether through establishment, development, administration, or advice in order to be eligible for E-2 visa.

For the purpose of article 8, the U.S rendered nationals of Jordan as eligible for treaty trader (E-1) and treaty investor (E-2) visas. This article seems to imply as if the U.S gave Jordanian nationals special or privileged visa treatment. However, Jordanian national individuals will not be exempt from acquiring a visa for entry into the U.S. Rather, Jordanian national must appear at the U.S. embassy or consulate in Jordan and be inspected by a consular officer and acquire a visa stamp before entering the U.S. for inspection by an immigration officer.

Two-way trade between the U.S. and Jordan is up substantially since the free trade agreement between the two countries took effect, but a provision enabling temporary entry of Jordanian nationals into the U.S. has seen little use. For the period 2002-2010, there were no trader or investor visas issued to Jordanian nationals under the visa provisions of the FTA. This state of affair could be attributed to lack of awareness or understanding on the part of Jordan's nationals as to E category of visas, the difficulty traders or investors face in meeting the thresholds of "substantial trade" or "substantial amount of capital" for investment, or difficulty of proving intent to return back to Jordan. Not any trader or investor can meet these thresholds. The onerous of article 8 of the FTA might explain the nonexistent of visas under the FTA so far even though U.S regulations allow for consideration being given to any conditions in the country of which the alien is a national which may affect the alien's ability to carry on such substantial trade.

On the other hand, one year after NAFTA came into force, 220 accountants from the U.S, but none from Mexico, entered Canada independently, and 62 U.S accountants entered as intra-company employees, 965 engineers from the U.S and 7 from Mexico, and 224 American intra-company engineers and 3 Mexicans were issued entry documents, 34 lawyers independently and 9 as intra-company employees came from the U.S.

Although national security, outsourcing, and immigration concerns are issues that need to be addressed, the U.S. must rationally weigh the costs and benefits of limiting movement of individuals. Increasing temporary worker mobility, and for that matter trade in general, has greater potential to benefit trade development, mutual understanding, peace, and tolerance. Failure to consider movement for individuals as a vital component of economic infrastructure and foreign policy will seriously affect economic growth and stability.

US-Jordan FTA Cross-Border Provision of Services

Historically, most trade agreements focused on reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers on goods as they cross international borders. However, the services sector now accounts for about seventy five percent of employment activity in industrialized countries like the U.S. Therefore, current trade agreements deal with trade in services.

While WTO achieved major progress in liberalizing the trade in goods, it later has begun to liberalize trade in services. The WTO's General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) recognizes several modes of supplying services with "Mode 4" addressing the temporary cross-border movement of business and professional workers. The US-JO FTA goes beyond the primary focus on goods and it deals with a new frontier, liberalization of trade in services. Such liberalization is important for freer flow of labor over national borders.

The US-JO FTA sets out several service obligations. The FTA requires each party to accord to service providers of another party treatment no less favorable than that it accords, in like circumstances, to its own service providers. The idea of this provision is nondiscrimination whereby Jordan must treat service provider from the U.S. the same way that Jordan treats service provider from Jordan. The other key US-JO FTA obligation is the most-favored nation obligation whereby each party is to accord to service providers of another party treatment no less favorable than that it accords, in like circumstances, to service providers of any other Party or of a non-Party. For example, if Jordan treats a service provider from Iraq more favorably than it treats a service provider from the U.S., the treatment provided to the Iraqi must be accorded to an American service provider.

The US-JO FTA created obligations specifically targeting professional services. Professional services, unlike most service providers who wish to provide their services in the U.S., they need permission to enter the jurisdiction from the U.S. immigration authorities. Movement of natural persons, professionals, is of particular importance to Jordan. However, temporary entry into the U.S. is limited to executives, managers, or specialists of a Jordanian company that has a physical presence in the U.S. in the form of branch, subsidiary, or affiliate. Such entry is limited to three years with a one-time two years extension.

The U.S. commitment, while covering the intra-corporate movement of senior personnel, does not extend to other categories of workers. Low-skilled workers seeking entry into the U.S. will not be admitted under the US-JO FTA. Both the U.S. and Jordan would benefit more from relaxed restrictions on unskilled labor rather than on skilled labor. Jordan has primarily unskilled labor to supply while the U.S. has primarily unskilled jobs to offer.

Under the US-JO FTA, a corporate employee cannot move to the U.S. unless his company already maintains commercial presence in the U.S. In other words, the FTA requires a Jordanian service providers to establish or maintain a representative office or any form of enterprise in the U.S. as a condition for the cross-border provision of a service. The "commercial presence" requirement prohibited if not stopped stop temporary movement of workers between the U.S. and Jordan. The US-JO FTA should have prohibited the parties from imposing local presence requirements on cross-border service providers.

The U.S. opted for skilled workers and commercial presence in the FTA perhaps out of concerns over education, certification, professional accreditation, and licensing in Jordan. For example, an engineer who wants to build a bridge in the U.S. is going to need two pieces of paper; in addition to a temporary visa permit, they also need to be licensed by the U.S. professional regulatory body. In order to increase worker mobility, the U.S. and Jordan could have concluded mutual recognition agreements and harmonized professional standards in certain sectors. Additionally, the U.S. and Jordan could have placed more emphasis on education and experience rather on passing exams or interviews. For example, a Jordanian engineer can obtain a temporary license to practice in the U.S. if he has a minimum of twelve years of acceptable engineering experience.

Labor Mobility in the North American Free Trade Agreement

Compared with the modest language of article 8 of the US-JO FTA, NAFTA dedicates a whole chapter-chapter 16- dedicated to temporary entry for business persons. The purpose of chapter 16 of NAFTA is to facilitate temporary entry of business persons. NAFTA parties endeavor to develop and adopt common criteria and definitions for the implementation of chapter 16. Moreover, each NAFTA party is committed to furnish the other parties with materials that enable them to be acquainted with chapter 16. To facilitate the movement of persons across the borders, each NAFTA party is committed to provide explanatory material regarding the requirements for temporary entry under chapter 16 in such a manner as will enable business persons of the other parties to become acquainted with them. On the other hand, the US-JO FTA is absent of such a commitment. Hence, Jordanian nationals might not be able to determine the meanings of critical terms such as "substantial trade" or "investment".

According to NAFTA, any dispute regarding refusal to grant temporary entry of business persons is subject to the dispute settlement mechanism. Chapter 16 of NAFTA created four categories of business persons who are citizens of a member country to be granted temporary entry. These four basic categories are: business visitors, traders and investors, intra-company transferees, and professionals. Business visitors who are engaged in international business activities may enter a NAFTA member country in B-1 status for the purposes of conducting research and design (technical, scientific, and statistical researchers), growth, manufacture and production (harvester owner supervising a harvesting crew, purchasing and production management personnel), marketing (marketing researchers and analysts, trade fair and promotional personnel).

NAFTA also provides E-1 and E-2 visas for traders and investors. The conditions for granting visa under this category are the same as visas granted under article 8 of the US-JO FTA. However, NAFTA mandates that no NAFTA party may impose or maintain any numerical restriction relating to temporary entry for traders or investors. In contrast, the U.S may impose numerical limits on the number of visa traders or investors under the US-JO FTA.

Another distinction between NAFTA and the US-JO FTA under the treaty trader and investor provisions is that a Canadian or Mexican business person may be denied E visa if there is a labor dispute in the Canadian or Mexican's occupational classification in progress where the Canadian or Mexican will be employed and their entry may adversely affect the settlement of the labor dispute or the employment of any person involved in the dispute. In other words, the requirements for E-1 and E-2 visas under NAFTA are the same as they in the US-JO FTA, with the exception that entry may be denied when it would adversely affect the settlement of a labor dispute in the US. This provision is only triggered when the Department of Labor certifies the existence of a strike or work stoppage, and does not apply to E visa holders already in the US. This language is absent from the US-JO FTA which means in effect that even if there is a labor dispute in the Jordanian's occupational classification, still a Jordanian national can enter the U.S as trader or investor.

The third category of NAFTA visas is L-1 visa for a business person employed by an enterprise who seeks to render services to that enterprise or a subsidiary or affiliate thereof, in a capacity that is managerial, executive or involves specialized knowledge. In this category, no NAFTA party may impose numerical restrictions on temporary entry.

The last category of visas under NAFTA is professional visa, TN category. This kind of visa is unique for NAFTA nationals and is not available for other nationals. The US-JO FTA does not contain such kind of visa system for professionals. Under NAFTA, certain categories of professionals who meet minimum educational requirements, or posses designated credentials or licenses and experience, and who seek to engage in professional occupations in a NAFTA member country, may be admitted for example into the U.S for up to one year. Appendix 1603.D.1 of NAFTA lists 63 professions whom its holder may be eligible for TN visa after meeting the minimum requirements. For example, an economist has to posses baccalaureate or Licenciatura degree, a lawyer has to posses LL.B (for example Canadian common law degree), J.D., LL.L., B.C.L. (for example Canadian civil law degree) or Licenciatura degree (Mexican law degree consists of studying for five years) or membership in a state/provincial bar, and a university teacher has to posses baccalaureate or Licenciatura degree.

The U.S could have incorporated a provision similar to the TN category of NAFTA in the US-JO FTA regarding professional visas. Professional visa system could have given the opportunity for Jordanian professionals to acquire contacts and experience that would be translated into increase of trade between the U.S and Jordan. However, issues of immigration and recognition of credentials could have prevented the incorporation of such a provision in the US-JO FTA. Probably, the U.S was concerned that Jordan may dump its citizens in the U.S. and they would not return to their native Jordan. Although, placing a cap on the number of TN visas issued annually could have minimized this concern on the part of the U.S.

Conclusion

Freer trade applies not only for trade in goods but also extends to include other factors of production such as labor and capital. Production is not just a function of capital and natural resources, but also of labor. Little attention has been paid to liberalizing the movement of persons who trade in these goods and services. In the formulation of trade agreement, the flow of goods between the member countries should be discussed in connection with the flow of people.

The US-JO FTA is designed to permit temporary entry, without intent to establish permanent residence, of traders and key business personnel. Despite that, the FTA does not provide "truly temporary entry". As of this date, Jordanian nationals are not able to benefit from the visa commitments of the US-JO FTA. The US-JO FTA permits entry for narrowly defined investment-related and trade-related purposes. The U.S made the entry of traders and investors from Jordan difficult. Jordanian businesspeople face difficulties in meeting the threshold of "substantial trade", "investment", and "substantial amount of capital". Moreover, the U.S. couples the movement of key business personnel with local presence requirements. Only Jordanian nationals with money and extensive professional skills can gain entry to the U.S. The US-JO FTA prioritized workers with advanced educational training and capital to invest. The US-JO FTA prioritizes the cross-border movement of corporate executives, researchers, and professionals with advanced degrees.

The US-JO FTA, among other US-Arab free trade agreement, is a trade agreement concerned with the movement of goods and services but not with the movement of persons. The U.S. has chosen to actively pursue a free trade agenda in the Middle East while simultaneously restricting inbound temporary labor mobility. Jordanian nationals are human beings and they have a baccalaureate degree. They are part of the free trade agreement. There can be no free trade without people to facilitate it. The current temporary visa provisions significantly increase the cost of doing business and prevent the effective use of a company's human resources. The issue of trade and temporary visas should be of immediate relevance to negotiators when crafting the broader US-Middle East FTA. Unless the inter-relationship between trade and temporary visas is properly understood, trade liberalization may be easily undone.

2011 Economic Forecast - Part 2: The United States (US)

2010 is finally history. The economic recovery, which officially began in 2009, was scarcely evident as the US economy muddled through 2010. It seemed that for every piece of good news, like the strong end to the 2010 Christmas shopping season, was countered by news of a setback, such as unemployment rates that unexpectedly returned to nearly 10% during the same period.

The government's stimulus efforts have run their course. The TARP program is officially over and tax credits for new home buyers have all expired. The economy now has to perform on its own without all that artificial stimulation.

The fed has reduced interest rates to historic lows to internally stimulate the economy. If interest rates were the cause of The Great Recession this action should have revved up the economy and put us back on track. With federal reserve interest rates at 0% the economy should be white-hot. However, high interest rates are not the problem, so lowering them did not spark an economic rebound. Here's why with my forecast for 2011:

Unemployment Will Probably Stay Stuck Near 10%

The dirty little secret behind this statistic is that the 10% figure represents only those who currently have no earned income. Those who are working one or more part-time jobs because they can't find a full-time work, are underemployed in their field, or who are laboring out-of-bounds of their education or training are considered by the government to be employed. When this expanded population is taken into account, the actual unemployment/underemployment statistic is most likely double the official figure.

Unfortunately, there are now multiple barriers to lowering our now chronically high unemployment level. Some of the most important are:

The huge oversupply of foreclosed and unsold homes - The reasoning here is straightforward: there is no need for new construction in a saturated market, which means no construction jobs. Jobs in support industries that supply new home construction goods and services will obviously also be affected. More on this topic below.
Continued restraint in consumer spending - more on this topic below.
Major (and many smaller) corporations continue to outsource overseas everything from manufacturing to admin support - much is made of sending low skill or semi-skilled manufacturing jobs overseas, while the US supposedly maintains its edge through high tech startups at home. The government likes to point to numerous high tech startup companies as proof this strategy is working.

Some entrepreneurs do successfully start corporations that may eventually employ 50 white collar workers. However, the product they create is outsourced to manufacturing overseas in a factory that employs perhaps 5000 workers to produce it. Granted, it may cost less per unit to manufacture there, but those 5000 low skilled or semi-skilled workers employed there are exactly the type of person most likely to be unemployed in the US.

So, manufacturing, the great economic engine that for over 100 years was the promise of the high school graduate being able to enter the middle class, is essentially gone, which in great measure explains the growing class rift in our nation.

Note that when manufacturing is sent overseas, the outsourcing company essentially has to teach the foreign corporation how to create the new product, which is new knowledge that a foreign power can use to its own benefit. China is the best example of this. We have successfully trained and paid the Chinese (and others) to beat us at our own game, as evidenced by China's growing economic might and a political presence that now must be reckoned with.
Hiring temporary workers, rather than in-house employees - temporary or contract workers are far cheaper to hire than in-house employees who qualify for benefits like health insurance and the retirement program. The company owes no loyalty to temps or contractors, and they can be hired and fired at will.
Corporations no longer hire employees with "potential" or experience in parallel or complementary industries - major corporations have ceased to think long-term in many areas, shifting their focus nearly exclusively to near term actions that produce short-term results. Examples of this myopic view range from focusing on the next quarter's stock earnings per share to viewing employees as a short-term commodity rather than long-term assets.

Viewing employees as a commodity results in corporate behavior of hiring what's needed for the moment and discharging them when the immediate need disappears, which in turn results in a goal of only searching for and hiring employees "who can make an immediate contribution to the bottom line."
The exponential increase in education, credential, and experience criteria for candidate employees over and above actual position requirements - new hire employees are now expected to "hit the ground running" and be able to "make an immediate contribution to the bottom line." Like a new electronic gadget, a new employee should be able to "work right out of the box."

This new expectation was unheard of only a few years ago during the era when employees were a valuable asset to be invested in over the long term. Then, new hires weren't expected to be able to make meaningful contributions until they had been with a corporation long enough to learned the ropes.

Now, most hiring authorities don't even make the effort to understand what skill set is actually required to perform the job they're hiring for. So, advanced degrees, myriad commercial certificates, and recent experience in everything are specified in the hope that the overkill will result in a person eventually hired that can do the job.

These excessive requirements are then passed to the human resources (HR) department, which dutifully uses them as an inflexible tool to screen the applicant database. The popularity of online employment applications has exacerbated this problem, where the HR person can enter "MBA" as a search term and never see the many capable, well qualified people who are discarded because they don't have this degree.

As an example, you may not need an engineer with an MBA to be the head of a maintenance department. The better candidate may well be a military veteran non-commissioned officer (NCO) who successfully ran a repair depot. Hiring the former NCO would bring superb talent and a broad background into the organization, could probably be hired at a substantial savings for the company, and may stay with the company longer than the highly credentialed engineer who is intent on furthering his career climbing the corporate ladder.

Further, most large corporations have returned to profitability during the Great Recession through extreme cost cutting, mostly through layoffs in their labor force. Employees who survived the purges were told to take on the extra responsibilities of their former colleagues, so technically the same amount of work is being performed by fewer people (which is responsible for the great gains in national productivity figures compiled by the government and widely reported in the media). This approach obviously places all the necessary skill set eggs into fewer baskets, which creates entirely predictable problems when the new multi-taskers eventually leave and corporations try to replace them with another single person who can do the newly defined mega-job, rather than spreading skills (and risk) over several employees.
The well documented bias against hiring the unemployed - On the surface this bias may seem counterintuitive, after all, someone who's unemployed is readily available and could probably start Monday, right?

However, the corporate thought process generally follows this logic path; "most corporations layoff their least productive workers during a downsizing, therefore if you're unemployed you were among the least desirable or productive workers or you wouldn't have been laid off. It follows then that there must be something wrong with you that we don't know about, otherwise you would be employed" regardless of your skill set, recent experience, or personal references.

It's unfortunate that this twisted and nonsensical logic that is frequently imposed on situational "outsiders", from marital status to any of society's other membership groupings, has now found its way into corporate hiring mentality.

I recommend Louis Uchitelle's book, The Disposable American, for more on this topic. (I have no financial interest in this recommendation.)

The unemployment bottom line - The unemployment/underemployment rate will little change in 2011, with those fitting the categories above most affected.

Real Estate Foreclosures Will Continue at a Record Pace and Housing Prices Will Remain Depressed in Most Areas of the Country

The government statistics here are shocking, with estimates that nearly half (HALF!) of all homeowners with mortgages have homes that currently appraise for less than the mortgage value; they're "upside down". Further, nearly 20% of all mortgages nationwide were in some stage of foreclosure at the end of 2010, with rates much higher in the hardest hit states of Michigan, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and California.

The efforts of the banking industry to work through this massive backlog lead to the "robo-signing" fiasco, where foreclosure paperwork was being routinely approved under oath en mass without verifying what was being attested to in the court documents. Faced with active investigations by attorneys-general in all 50 states, banks temporarily suspended foreclosure proceedings during the 4th quarter of 2010 to straighten out the mess they created, which the news media widely (and inaccurately) reported as a sign the economy is improving. However, the backlog must be worked through to get the bad debt off the banks' books, so foreclosures will resume at perhaps even a greater pace when the paperwork is straightened out, probably by the second quarter of 2011.

The huge inventory of foreclosed and otherwise unsold homes will keep housing prices depressed. As long as there are so many unsold homes on the market (with more to arrive when the banks resume foreclosure processing), the oversupply will keep prices down and may drive them ever lower in 2011. Even after the foreclosure backlog is reduced, many new home sale listings will appear on the market when prices start to rise from the concealed backlog of those who want or need to sell, but didn't list when prices were low, which will depress prices again. I wouldn't be surprised if it took until 2015 to work through this immediate and hidden backlog.

The real estate bottom line - in most markets, residential real estate values will remain depressed or will decline further in the high impact states. Now is the time to buy if you have income security, the necessary available cash, an astronomical credit rating to qualify for a mortgage, and can find a bank willing to lend.

Energy Prices Should be Stable

Recent articles in authoritative publications have reported that on-shore crude oil storage is full to capacity and that mothballed tankers functioning simply as floating storage tanks are anchored off the coasts of Great Britain and Iran. A recent inventory showed that 50+ tankers were anchored off of the coast of England alone.

Most oil producing countries derive the majority of their national income from crude oil sales, so their incentive is to keep pumping, regardless of market price, in order to maintain their revenue stream, which will keep supplies abundant. So, the world is awash in crude oil, with inventory stores in excess of demand, putting downward pressure on gasoline prices. Overall, gas prices should remain relatively stable during the first half of the year, absent an unplanned disruption like a major refinery fire or a hurricane that destroys oil platforms. That's good news for every household and corporate budget in our petroleum-based economy.

The wild card is China, again. Prior to the recession, China became a net importer of crude oil and was starting to compete on the world market for the limited supply of crude available (remember $150 per barrel spot market crude?). If other world economies improve and start consuming more oil, then everyone will return to competing for limited energy supplies on the world market. And China will most certainly win any contest here, because their trade surplus has given them an unlimited supply of dollars to buy oil with.

The energy bottom line - energy prices will most likely slowly increase throughout the year as the fragile recovery continues and the economies of the world pick up steam.

An alternative scenario is that energy prices remain stable when China's real estate bubble collapses (see 2011 Economic Forecast - Part 1: The World View from a US Perspective for elaboration on this possibility), causing a large loss of personal wealth for the average Chinese citizen, dramatically driving down internal consumption, and leading to China's own internal economic recession.

Crude prices will not decline because OPEC will adjust production to maintain oil in the $90-$100 price range.

Consumer Spending Will Remain Flat

People out of work spend only what they have to on the barest necessities. People who are afraid they will be next out of work, cut back on spending in order to save for what might come to pass, and also focus on buying only the practical, needed, and necessary. People who are secure in their jobs, but don't want to be seen conspicuously consuming during hard times, will curtail their luxury purchases. Need I say more?

Further, it's underreported that the historically low interest rates have meant a sharp drop in savings interest income for retirees. Retirees dependent on interest income have had to sharply reduce their spending in order to avoid further encroachment on their principal. Typically, the budget cuts include things like the lawn service contract, the beauty shop, dry cleaning, and eating out, all of which impacts local businesses.

The modest economic improvement widely reported during the last half of 2010 is probably the result of businesses simply restocking depleted inventories to low levels, which is good news but not great news. However, the buying surge that turned the 2010 Christmas shopping season into a last minute success means that retailers will start 2011 on better financial footing because they won't have to start the year having to liquidate seasonal inventory (and profits) at 50%-70% off to generate cash flow.

Additional reasons that I think consumer spending will continue to be restrained in 2011 include the increased personal savings rate (an eventual benefit, but lowers consumer spending in the short term), a focus on reducing credit card debt, unplanned new car payments in the household budget resulting from the federal Cash for Clunkers program, and credit that's either not available at any price or only at unfavorable interest rates and terms when it is.

The consumer spending bottom line - consumer spending on non-essential purchases will continue to be restrained in 2011. When consumers do make purchases, they will focus on the needed, necessary, and practical, and avoid luxury items even if they can afford them. Family vacations will be to local or regional destinations, rather than the exotic venues.

The Credit-Starved Economy

It's widely reported that large corporations are currently hoarding large amounts of cash. This stockpile gives them the ability to hire, expand production, and grow organically if they wanted to, but they are refusing to do so in light of what I've shared above. Even a White House meeting with the president in 2010 wasn't enough to persuade them to resume hiring if they can meet market demand with staff on hand.

However, large corporations continue to have aspirations to grow and, rather than slowly growing organically, the method they're often choosing is rapid growth through acquiring their competition. When companies combine, the result may possibly be good for the new, larger corporation (the marriages generally have a 50-50 chance of commercial success), but the result always has two negative economic impacts:

The cash and loans required to buy the competitor removes large amounts of capital from the market that would otherwise be available for mortgages and loans to small and mid-sized businesses (SMBs), and
Mergers always result in layoffs as the new corporation works to eliminate duplicate functions to help pay for the merger. After all, you don't need two payroll departments, two HR departments, two training departments, etc.

So, large corporate mergers have a break even chance of internal benefit, but nearly always have a negative impact on the economy.

Credit will most likely continue to be tight for SMBs in 2011. Banks say they have money to lend in this area, but the reality is the qualifying bar is set so high that very few will be able to meet it. It's noteworthy that this economic barrier persists despite the availability of government Small Business Administration loan guarantees and the president repeatedly summoning banking CEO's to the White House to urge them to begin lending again.

Finally, a common source of loan collateral for SMBs is no longer available in most cases. In areas hard hit by the collapse of the real estate market, the business owner's home equity line of credit has been completely erased if the property value is now less that the outstanding mortgage balance. Even if there is some equity technically available, few business owners have the stratospheric credit scores necessary to qualify for the loans.

If longer term loans remain unavailable, SMB's will turn to the only recourse they have left, which is financing their need for operating cash with personal credit card debt. Unfortunately, this option is fraught with danger because lending institutions issuing credit cards are rapidly changing card terms, raising interest rates to usurious levels, requiring most new cards to have variable interest rates (a practice which helped get us into this mess in the first place), and lowering credit limits in response to the new federal laws enacted in February 2010. These moves effectively sidestep the legislation intended to curb these abuses.

At a time when banks can borrow at 0% from the fed, it's not uncommon for the credit cards they issue to charge 15% or more on outstanding balances. Further, the new laws do not apply to corporate credit cards, exposing the company to even greater financial risk if the owner is forced to finance via this route.

The credit bottom line - expect little or no improvement in credit availability in 2011.

The Impending Commercial Real Estate Tsunami

Commercial real estate values and investment income will probably take a drubbing as vacant store fronts drive down rents renegotiated in 2011. Failing businesses have created a glut of vacant commercial space in many areas and vacant commercial space doesn't generate income. Surviving business owners will have several alternative locations to choose from and will use the oversupply as leverage to negotiate lower lease rates for the space they do occupy for as far into the future as possible.

And devalued properties of all types will have an adverse effect on local tax digests, forcing local governments to either raise property tax rates or trim operating and school budgets. Which of these choices do you think your local government will make?

Deficit Spending and the Growing Threat of the National Debt

Fiscally, the United States is in a mess and is rapidly approaching the financial meltdown so many European countries are currently experiencing.

The annual budget deficit - the federal government currently spends $3 for every $2 of revenue it receives and the annual spending gap is now over a trillion dollars (a TRILLION dollars) a year. Proposals to close this gap through either increased tax revenue, such as eliminating the homeowners mortgage deduction, or by cutting spending, such as cutting back on Medicare entitlements, meet with howls of constituent protests and go nowhere in a hurry. Note that Medicare alone accounts for 12% of all federal spending and that figure is certain to increase as baby boomers begin to retire in large numbers from the workforce.

The federal government currently spends $1,000,000,000 more every 8 hours than it brings in. It's ridiculously obvious that this can't continue for long, yet collectively Congress keeps kicking the can down the road to tomorrow (figuratively speaking) instead of dealing with the issue.

The US government borrows money to support this deficit spending through the sale of US treasury bonds. During World War II the debt was largely financed internally with American citizens buying "war bonds" at rallies that featured real-life war heroes on display.

Today we sell our bonds to foreign powers finance the deficit. Who's buying them? The largest single buyer, by far, is China, followed by Japan, Germany, and the Arab OPEC nations. So, we are effectively (and quietly) being held hostage to those who buy large amounts of our bonds, because if they don't buy them, then we can't operate the federal government. It follows, then, that the nations buying our bonds use this leverage to exercise considerable influence in our behavior behind the scenes. We are no longer a totally independent nation.

Larry Burkett's book, The Illuminati, is a fictional work about a foreign country that brings down the United States using exactly this leverage. For those who say that can't happen, the book makes an interesting read of a plausible scenario. (I have no financial interest in this recommendation.)

The national debt - The accumulated national debt has reached an unimaginable size. The previous administration added more to the national debt than all previous presidents combined, including Ronald Reagan's, and the current administration is on track to exceed this sorry milestone in just its first 4 years in office. We continue to add to this debt, which must be paid back at some point, almost without thought. For example, the president's much heralded tax deal forged at the end of 2010 added $900 billion dollars to the national debt in extended income tax cuts, additional jobless benefits for the long-term unemployed, and a temporary cut in social security taxes without corresponding cuts in social security spending, at the stroke of a pen.

Predictions are, depending on interest rates, for interest payments alone to equal all non-defense spending of the federal budget by perhaps 2015.

There are only 4 ways out of this mess and they will become increasingly painful the longer we, as a nation, avoid changing our spendthrift ways:

Massively cut spending - this will be very difficult, since the federal budget would have to be immediately cut by 1/3 to be able to simply stop borrowing. It would have to be cut even further to begin paying back principal on the debt.

This step will further impact the national unemployment rate as large numbers of government employees are laid off in the downsizing, as we have seen happen in the European Union bailouts. Most popular government programs would have to be axed or pushed off on the states to fund, such as Medicare, which currently consumes 12% of the annual federal budget alone.
Enacting huge tax increases - this move will generate howls of protest because no one wants to pay more of their hard-earned money for fewer services. As an example, how easy do you think it would be to eliminate the cherished homeowner's mortgage interest deduction?
Defaulting on the debit payments - this is an admission of bankruptcy, pure and simple. If we take this route the government's access to credit on the world market would immediately dry up. After all, if we stop paying on our current bond obligations, how many more bonds do you think we could sell to foreign governments the next time we needed to borrow money?
Printing dollar bills - this is the route to hyperinflation, because as the money supply increases the value of each dollar falls. The most often cited example of the folly of taking this route is the Republic of Germany following World War I, as it struggled to meet the surrender terms imposed by the Allies and make payments to the victorious nations for the cost of the war. Germany was forced to print money to meet its financial obligations, sparking the hyperinflation recorded in the pictures of German citizens in the 1920's hauling wheelbarrows of money to the grocery store to buy a loaf of bread.

The national debt bottom line - At the present rate of deficit spending, interest payments on the national debt will overwhelm the national budget by 2015. At that point we will be left with 4 stark choices to deal with the mess we've created: massively cut federal spending, enact huge tax increases, default on the debit, print money, or do some combination of these choices. The outlook is stark.

The US National Forecast Bottom Line

What does all this mean? Well, in the near term a realistic forecast is to be cautiously optimistic that the fragile recovery will continue, absent any further shocks to our financial system. However, the economy will be dragging a ball-and-chain along with it in the form of high unemployment, depressed commercial and residential real estate markets, the lack of available credit, the corporate preference to acquire the competition rather than hire new employees, and the looming national debt crisis.

If the scenarios above make sense to you then my suggestion is for small and medium-sized businesses, like professional practices that depend on elective procedures and service industry businesses, to be prepared for clients and patients to continue to defer discretionary spending until at least the second half of 2011. If you're a retailer, you should keep inventories lean for the first half of the year.

And my personal recommendation is for everyone to reduce their personal debt to as close to zero as possible by 2015.

Will this all come to pass? It's hard to tell because we haven't been here before, but I've shared my best guess. Do you think I nailed it or do you have a different opinion? I look forward to your comments.

Dan Elder is an experienced business coach and management consultant with Business Growth Accelerators, specializing in growing professional practices and retail and service industry businesses. He offers a free initial phone consultation to those interested in significantly improving their business situation. Learn more about how he can help you at bgaccelerators.com/services-business-coaching.html.

Dan is also a regular columnist for Business in Savannah (The Savannah Morning News), speaks on a wide variety of business topics, and is the author of the Business Growth Accelerators series on Amazon.com. He welcomes your comments. Contact him at bgaccelerators.com.

(c) 2010 - Daniel J. Elder. Permission is granted to reproduce and distribute this article in its entirety without fee or royalty. Portions may be excerpted for publication provided attribution is made, including the author's contact information.

Socialized Medicine - Would it Work For the United States?

"Socialized Medicine" is primarily an ideology championed by the Democrats. However, contrary to popular belief, a nationalized health care system has never actually been on the agenda for President Elect Obama. His agenda has always been to assist those who are rendered uninsurable and or are in need of assistance in obtaining health care coverage due to low income. Part of his plan is to expand the role of SCHIP and State Insurance Risk Pools so that those who are rendered "uninsurable" on the individual major medical market have access to guaranteed insurability.

Many states already have established Risk Pools. However states such as Arizona and Florida do not. These states desperately need such Risk Pools. Unfortunately, until now they have not been able to receive enough Federal funding to expand this much needed role. President Elect Obama wishes to provide more Federal funding to these existing risk pools to drive the premiums down, thereby making this option more affordable for those rendered uninsurable.

One of the reasons a "nationalized" health care system has never been on Obama's agenda is most likely due to the terrible failure of such programs in countries such as France & Canada. However, proponents of "socialized medicine" often use Canada as a template in which the U.S. Health Care System should follow. Those living in Canada know full well that their government run health care program is most certainly not working. As a matter of fact, many Canadian citizens choose to hire high priced brokers to find them quality health care right here in the United States because of the terrible bureaucracy that controls all forms of health care in Canada. For facts about the current Canadian Health Care System and how it correlates to the current state of health care in the United States watch the short but informative documentary videos embedded in the first article of my health care blog located at the end of this article.

The truth of the matter is we already have an enormous amount of entitlement programs available to those who find themselves unable to pay for their health care. Often times these entitlement programs are offered to those who are here legally and illegally as was the case in the State of Illinois. Most recently, the State of Hawaii tried to emulate the Medicaid Expansion programs that were enacted in Illinois. It took less than 7 months to render their program bankrupt.

All things considered, the best way to offset the high cost of health care in the U.S. is to adopt the initiatives set forth over a decade ago by Senator Bill Archer (R) of Texas. The HSA (Health Savings Account) commonly referred to as a "Medical IRA" coupled with an HDHP (High Deductible Health Plan) is a unique option that maintains high quality health insurance coverage for the policy holder whilst also building a tax deductible, tax deferred interest bearing account for the insured to use for future medical expenses. Many medical expenses that would not normally be covered by a traditional health insurance plan would be a 100% tax deduction when the insured owns a tax qualified HDHP. The list of IRS approved expenses can be found on the HSA section of the IRS web site.

Even if one can not qualify for the aforementioned HDHP option due to underwriting restrictions. There are still several other options now available to those who have been rendered "uninsurable" in the individual health insurance market. These options are as follows:

1.) The aforementioned State Insurance Risk Pool Coverage provided under HIPAA which provides seamless continuation of coverage once an insured has either lost employer sponsored group or has been offered Cobra continuation coverage and then exhausted it. To find out the states that have risk pools visit: http://www.naschip.org/states_pools.htm

2.) Small Group or Employer Sponsored Health Insurance which contains the all important "Guaranteed Insurability" clause. A Small Group policy can be purchased by as little as two people (often husband and wife working under the same corporate tax ID number).

3.) Gauranteed Issue HIPAA certified "Defined Benefit" Health Insurance policies issued on an individual basis to anyone regardless of medical history. Whilst these plans offer limited benefits, they will cover pre-existing conditions such as Cancer and Diabetes from day one providing the applicant can produce a Certificate of Creditable Coverage from their former carrier showing at least 18 months of continuous coverage with no lapse of more than 63 days.

In the end consumer education and retention of existing Federal entitlement programs (via a legitimate needs assessment test) will go a long way towards not only maintaining our current health care system, but also towards keeping the bulk of our nations risk where it belongs namely, with the private health insurance sector. In light of the recent $7 Trillion "Bail Out" and many other failing corporations coming to the table with their hats in their hands (and their private jets on the tarmac) the last thing our government should do is start cutting more blind "bail out" checks in an effort to "reform" the U.S. health care system.

C. Steven Tucker, is the President of Small Business Insurance Services, Inc. and has been a Licensed Mult-State Insurance Broker serving the small business and self-employed market for over a decade. Mr. Tucker believes an informed insurance consumer makes the best health insurance purchasing decisions. Mr. Tucker has written several articles that focus on small business health insurance, which can be read on a number of web sites around the web. He also serves as a health insurance subject matter expert for the Wall Street Journal, Fortune Business Magazine, The Nashville Business Journal, Real Estate Executive Magazine, The Tennessean and other business journals around the country.

You can learn more about the state of health care and how to avoid insurance fraud by visiting his health blog here: http://www.sbisvcs.com/blog.htm

If you have general questions regarding health insurance, or you are in the market to purchase a health insurance plan, you can also call Mr. Tucker toll-free at 1-866-SBIS123 (724-7123)

Fake United States Paper Currency Denominations

Fake United States Paper Currency Denominations have been used as both jokes and as a real attempt of counterfeiting. Counterfeiting was common back in the 1800s until the National Banking Act in 1863 was passed. This is because until then banks were allowed to print their own currency so there were no questions asked if a bill was legitimate or not.

The $3 bill has been released more as a practical joke to poke fun at celebrities like Bill and Hillary Clinton, Michael Jackson, and Richard Nixon. There is a saying that goes with this, "Queer as a three dollar bill."

There was a $22 bill made by Lawrence Wagner (a.k.a. Love 22) who was a U.S. Presidential Candidate. He printed the bill because being a numerologist he believed that the number 22 was very important. The Federal Government indicted him for the crime of counterfeiting, but he was let go because technically you can not counterfeit something that doesn't exist.

In 2001 and 2003 there were two occasions where a $200 bill was used to pay for items. The one bill had a picture of President George W. Bush on the front of it.

A $1,000,000 bill does not exist now and has never existed, so the U.S. Federal Reserve allows it to be printed as a novelty. There have been times when someone has tried to deposit the bill into a bank account or use it for purchasing something.

Ray Comfort, a Christian evangelist, has a ministry called Living Waters Publications which produces fake $1,000,000 bills and fake $1,000,000,000 bills. The $1,000,000 has Rutherford B. Hayes, the 19th U.S. President, on the front of it and the $1,000,000,000 pictures the 19th British evangelist Charles Spurgeon. Both notes have gospel messages on the back of them.

Randy Zakowski is an author and a successful coin seller. Visit his site Canadian and U.S. Money to find great deals on United States Paper Money plus other types of United States Currency.

Iran Will Be the Number One Problem for the United States of America in 2012

Iran will be the number one problem for the USA in 2012. If Obama can handle this situation with soft gloves, then he'll show he is unbeatable in the 2012 elections when it comes to foreign policy. Iran can influence the progress in Iraq, cut the world's oil supplies and they have two powerful allies in Russia and China.

Iraq is a situation that could evaporate at the snap of a finger. After 10 years of fighting in Iraq, the US military has finally left the country and Iraq is in charge of protection themselves. Although this is the case, the US still have private contractors to protect the largest US Embassy in the world along with the CIA, FBI and other intelligence operations. The US Embassy is in the perfect locations, close the Iran border. The number of people participating in these operations are around 16,000.

Iraq's Sunni and Shiite are divided about the direction of the country, this could soon cause a civil war in Iraq. Iran is a majority Shi'a, this is the same for northern Iraq. In a civil war, foreign policy experts think Iran could easily influence the Shiite of Iraq to join Iran to over-through the government and combine Iran with northern Iraq. This could be devastating considered over 1 million soldiers from the USA served in Iraq with over 4000+ dead and 35,000+ injured. These death and injuries could all be for nothing, but who would people blame. Some would blame George W. Bush for deploying our military into Iraq, some will blame Obama for ending the war too soon, but I think ending our longest war is better than staying another 10 years. If Iran plays their cards correctly, they could really have a major influence on northern Iraq.

Iran and their influence on the world oil supplies could be disastrous for the world economy. The US threatened to imposes new sanctions targeting Tehran's oil exports. Of course Iran is not a big fan of these new sanctions, so they threatened to close the strait, which is the only sea outlet for the crucial oil fields in and around the Persian Gulf.

In responds to the threat, the US deployed the 5th fleet into the region. The good news is the Gulf Arab nations has promised to make up the difference so the oil supplies are on par.

Iran is the world's fourth-largest oil producer, with an output of about 4 million barrels of oil a day. It relies on oil exports for about 80 percent of its public revenues. So, if Iran follow through with their plan then you can see the impact the could have on the world's supply. Also, Iran in more aggressive b/c they're close to having a nuclear weapon if they don't already have one.

Iran can push the envelope b/c they have powerful allies in China and Russia. Some experts say that either Russia or China has helped them develop nuclear weapons. Russia has had a huge stock pile of nuclear warheads since the end of the USSR. The past 23 years, people think Russia has sold nuclear weapons to terrorist or rogue nations. Russia continues to find oil partners around the world and they don't care about the direction of the government. This is strange b/c Russia is very strong in the petroleum industry according to the EIA (US Energy Information Administration):

The petroleum industry in Russia is one of the largest in the world. Russia has the largest reserves, and is the largest exporter, of natural gas. It has the second largest coal reserves, the eighth largest oil reserves, and is the largest exporter of oil. It is the third largest energy user.

Russia is the largest oil producer in the world, producing an average of 9.93 million barrels (1,579,000 m3) of oil per day in 2009 for a total of 494.2 million tons. It produces 12% of the world's oil and has a same share in global oil exports. The Russian oil industry is in need of huge investment. Strong growth in the Russian economy means that local demand for energy of all types (oil, gas, nuclear, coal, hydro, electricity) is continuing to grow.

China is a different case, China has over three billion people. China is growing at a 9% GDP pace, so they need energy and land. China continues to ignore the sanction put into place by the western nations. China believe in their own survival, so dealing with Iran is in their best interest. This is a major problem for the USA. If the USA needed to attack Iran then which side would Russia and China be on...Iran or the western nations. China has the number one growing middle class, economy and growing influence in the world. A clash of the titans is inevitable.

2012 is very important in shaping the future in Iran. As long as they produce a nuclear weapon and they have powerful allies then Iran will continue to be a thorn in the side of the USA. Iran will challenge everything Obama does b/c they know if Obama is out of the White House and a new president is elected then they'll have an extra year plus to spread their agenda. No president would be crazy enough to send troop into Iran unless they want a regional civil war (Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Jordan, etc.). This is why soft gloves are the key to controlling Iran, the use of force only embolden Iran causing a black hole of destruction in the region.

Academia Says the United States is a Declining Country - But They Also Voted for You Know Who?

A good number of highly educated folks tell us that great nations have a life cycle and America has enjoyed two-hundred years on the upside and will now go over the top and it will become a declining nation. Many of these folks say that the United States of America is already in decline and they point to the rise of China. However, I would submit to you that just because one nation rises doesn't mean another nation is necessarily falling.

Further, I would say that there are a good number of nations in the world which are all rising quite quickly and rapidly due to the United States, and the way we have spread liberty, democracy, and capitalism around the world. If anything those folks that claim America is in decline ought to look how we spread our wealth around the world helping other people out of poverty, and building nations up to be great like us. Only a great nation, a truly sincere and caring nation would ever do that.

Does that mean because we are helping other nations move up in the world that we are somehow declining - absolutely not! In fact, the United States is not declining, we are still the largest nation by GDP of any other nation on earth by a factor of three. As our economy returns to full speed, firing on all cylinders, we will be doing something like $17 trillion per year. Right now, China is only about 5 trillion per year in GDP. Does that mean the United States is declining because China went from a 2 trillion GDP to a 5 trillion GDP in 10 years - certainly not!

And, I'd like to remind everyone that the reason China is doing so well is because that the United States middle class is doing so well, as we have bought all the goods that China has produced, and without us there would be no great China rising. The same stands true for a good number of other nations in the world. Even the European Union and their great rise has been thanks to that of the United States. Yes Academia says the United States is a declining nation. I'm here to tell you that; that is absolutely 100% Hogwash.

The only way that this great nation will ever decline is if the people within it lose faith, not in the nation but in themselves. For we are the government, and sometimes the people forget that. We are the ones that make the nation great. Indeed, hope you'll never forget that. So please think on it.

Lance Winslow is a retired Founder of a Nationwide Franchise Chain, and now runs the Online Think Tank. Lance Winslow believes writing 23,100 articles was a lot of work - because all the letters on his keyboard are now worn off..

Teaching and Learning Modern Foreign Languages in the United Kingdom - Statutory and Non - Statutory

The National Curriculum for Modern foreign languages was updated in 1999, and aims towards giving "teachers, pupils, parents, employers and the wider community a clear and shared understanding of the skills and knowledge that young people will gain at school" (National curriculum, 2003:3).

The structure of the National Curriculum enables teachers to use this working document in order to inform their long-term, mid-term and short term planning. Amongst general guidelines, it contains a Programme of Study defined in the 1996 Education Act as "the matters, skills and processes that should be taught to pupils of different abilities and maturities during the key stage."(National Curriculum, 2003:6) Modern Languages Departments have the responsibility to decide on how they want this programme to be implemented, and this has to be detailed in their schemes of work for the various year groups.

The Programme of study features five mains strands to address in Key stage 3 and 4: students should acquire knowledge and understanding of the target language, develop languages skills, develop language-learning skills, develop cultural awareness and have a breadth of study. These strands are sub-divided in more specific points, which are no longer topic based, such as "pupils should be taught the principle of interrelationship of sounds and writing in the target language" ( National Curriculum, 2003:16).

The National Curriculum also includes attainment targets and level descriptors which should help to assess the performance of students uniformly across the country. The 1996 Education Act, section 353a, defines the attainment target for Modern Foreign Languages as the "knowledge, skills and understanding that pupils of different abilities and maturities are expected to have by the end of each key stage". Attainment targets across the curriculum consist of eight level descriptors, which describe the range of abilities and knowledge that students should have when they reach that level. For all the core subjects started in primary school, students have already been assessed using these levels; therefore, secondary schools are provided with prior data for each student new to a school. However, as languages are not statutory in primary school, secondary Modern Foreign Languages teachers are not provided with any information concerning students' prior learning. This implies that in Year 7 students are in mixed ability groups, amongst which some students have already practised languages, and some other have had no connection with a foreign language. Planning the lessons to suit the needs and skills of each individual student within the group is extremely difficult to achieve.

The National Curriculum promotes cross- curricular teaching and learning in various areas such as spiritual, moral and social and cultural development, key skills and thinking skills. It stresses the importance of the National Literacy strategy, a statutory strategy across the curriculum since 2000, as "Pupils should be taught in all subjects to express themselves correctly and appropriately and to read accurately and with understanding" (Literacy Strategy, 37:2000). Literacy has to be part of a whole school approach, and roles and responsibilities are clearly dispatched throughout the staff. The task of the director of learning is to monitor that the policy is implemented, in each department, and he gives guidance to all the staff as how to teach literacy. Each department is expected to identify literacy skills to focus on, in their department and include suitable strategies in the schemes of work. Indeed, Modern Foreign Languages are directly linked with literacy skills, as pupils are taught a foreign language, mainly through their knowledge of their native language. Besides, Hawkins suggests (1996: 21) that "one of the most effective ways of understanding the structure of a language is to compare it with the structure of another language".

Schools have the obligation to provide a broad and balanced curriculum for all their students. This is one of the key general teaching requirements in England. All students must have equal learning opportunities. There are three main principles for inclusion that teachers need to remember when planning their lessons: setting suitable learning challenge, responding to pupils' varied learning needs, and providing manageable assessments. Every child has to be treated as an individual, with his pace, needs and desire.

Researches have shown that "subject choice differs in single sex schools from that in mixed schools, and this may relate to boys' perceived susceptibility to peer pressure... in single sex setting, boys were more keen on languages than in their counterparts in mixed-sex schools" (Morgan and Neil, 2001: 133). If the boys are often achieving well in Year 7 and 8 in languages, it seems that they become disaffected in favour of subjects seen as more masculine, like sciences, from Year 9 onwards. Boys are usually more participating orally, during a lesson. The National Curriculum states that "to ensure that they meet the full range of pupils' needs, teachers should be aware of the requirements of the equal opportunities legislation, that covers race, gender, and disability" (National Curriculum, 2003: 21). The laws states that teachers should know about are The Sex Discrimination Act, 1975, The Race Relation Act, 1976, and the Disability Discrimination Act, 1995.

On the web site "Teacher Net" regarding equal opportunities and education it is said that "Schools must broaden the opportunities for all pupils to reach their individual potential. The objective is not equality in the absolute sense of everybody achieving the same, but the removal of what are often referred to as "barriers" to educational success."

II. 2. The National Strategy for England; Languages for all: Languages for life

II.2.a. Rationale

"In the knowledge society of the 21st century, language competence and intercultural understanding are not optional extras; they are an essential part of being a citizen. For too long we have lagged behind as a nation in our capability to contribute fully as multi-lingual and culturally aware citizens. Likewise, in the global economy too few employees have the necessary skills to be able to engage fully in international business, and too few employers support their employees in gaining additional language skills as part of their jobs" (Dfes, 2002:5). This statement made by the Department for Education and Skills certifies their knowledge and understanding of their countries rocky relationship with Modern Foreign Languages. Their answer to this issue is "The National Strategy for England; Languages for All: languages for life" was published on the 18th of December 2002. This document sets out the Government's plans to transform the countries abilities and views about languages.

The Nuffield Languages Inquiry, ordered by the Government in 1999, has established, as explained earlier, that the Government did not have a coherent approach to languages, and that there was no continuity in the initiatives concerning Modern Foreign Languages from primary school to university.

It is to address this issue and several others raised in the Nuffield Inquiry Final Report that the Government published primarily a Green Paper 14-19 entitled "Languages Learning: Extending opportunity, raising standards" in February 2002. This Green Paper lays the foundations to the National Languages Strategy published later that year. The proposals in this text focus on various concerns that the Government proposes to work upon; entitle students in primary school to study a language by 2012, increase the number of Languages Colleges, augment the number of people studying languages in further and higher education, increase the number of persons teaching languages, and work towards recognition of languages by society in England.

II.2.b Aims and strategies

The audit that the Government made in December 2002 embraces many issues and is extremely straightforward. They are fully aware of the crisis that languages have undergone in the previous 30 years. Their purpose is to change the perception that the nation has about languages and they are conscious that this will not be an easy challenge.

They decided to focus on creating an entitlement to languages for all pupils at Key Stage 2. "Every child should have the opportunity throughout Key Stage 2 to study a language and develop their interest in culture of other nations. They should have access to high quality teaching and learning opportunities, making use of native speakers and e-learning. By age 11 they should have the opportunity to reach a recognised level of competence in the Common European Framework and for that achievement to be recognised through a national scheme." (Dfes, 2002:15). This involves many constraints which are already listed in the National Strategy, but the Government also suggests pathways to achieve this long term project, which should be operational nationally by 2012. To deliver these lessons, primary school teachers who show interest in Modern Foreign Languages will be trained.

Furthermore, incentives will be given for language specialists to train for the primary level. Schools could also share a specialist teacher within a catchment's area. Furthermore, the Government advises to use members of the wider community demonstrating abilities in languages, and train them to teach at Key Stage 2 level. Specialist Languages Colleges should share best practice with their primary school colleagues, by doing outreach work. As the results obtained for National examination by students' attending Specialist Languages School prove to have improved tremendously, the National Strategy advocates increasing the number of schools having this Specialist status from 157 in 2002 to 200 by 2005. This also means that these schools, as they offer a varied range of languages have more staff within their Modern Foreign Languages department. One of the consequences which, is directly linked to the Strategy is that these schools are able to offer their competences to the local community. This can improve the perspective that a whole area has about languages.

Likewise, Advanced Skills Teachers are teachers who have been identified by Local Education Authorities, as outstanding professional within their specialist subjects will be involved in helping primary schools colleagues. Their role consists already in providing support to schools where either the exam results are very low, or in departments undergoing structural difficulties.

In order to increase the number of students taking up languages after 16, the Government insists on improving teaching and learning at KS3 and KS4. Students need to develop better abilities, and achieve better in order to be willing to carry on studying a language at a higher level. The curriculum needs to be increasingly flexible and the range of routes for learning language during the 14-19 phase should expand. The decrease in the number of pupils studying one language or more at A level has obviously had an impact on the provision for languages at universities. However, the National Strategy puts on emphasis on new courses offered which are joined degrees in a language and a more practical skill. Sixty new degrees which embed a language and business, management or tourism have been developed in the past few years. The objective of this specific part of the National Strategy tailors to the needs expressed by industries. Indeed, professionals admit that they lack of competent linguists on their rolls. Often, the proficiency that employees have, does not allow them to carry out a business conversation with a potential European partner. Some companies even admitted that they lost some business opportunities due to the incompetence of their staff in languages.

To motivate adults and to give credit to people for their languages skills, the Government wants to develop a national, voluntary recognition system, to supplement existing qualifications. They plan for the general public to be able to self-assess and record their achievements by using ICT. The Nuffield Feasibility Study commissioned in 2001 suggested the development of "Learning Ladder for Languages" which could be used to recognise and define language proficiency. However, there would be a possibility to take a test for people who would like to gain a certification.

II.2.c. Languages at Key Stage 4

The Green Paper "Languages Learning: Extending opportunity, raising standards" takes also a route that seems to be contradicting all the other educational reforms proposed to improve the status of languages in the United Kingdom within this specific document. "We do intend to amend the statutory requirements at Key Stage 4 so that schools will no longer be required to teach Modern Foreign Languages to all pupils. All schools will be required to ensure as a minimum that they are available to any pupil wishing to study them" (Dfes, 2002: 26).

This statement was the first step in which the Government revealed its intention. It was followed by the creation of a Working Group for 14-19 Reform, chaired by Sir Mike Tomlison. A final report was published in October 2004. The Working Group set out a whole new vision for the future of languages learning in Britain, starting the learning process early, by teaching Modern Foreign Languages at Key Stage 2 and entitling students to more flexibility and choice, especially for the 14 to 19 years old.

This decision implies that Modern Foreign Languages becomes a requirement as schools have to cater for each individual student, but also an option. All students in the United Kingdom are given the opportunity to decide in Year 9 whether they want to carry on studying a language. It is not longer a core subject alongside Maths, Science, and English. The status that Modern Foreign Languages had since the 1996 reform "Languages for All" has been completely transformed. This governmental decision has had a huge impact on the Modern Foreign Languages teachers' community.

The Government is prone to develop the vocational strand of education, and for students to undertake work related learning during Key Stage 4. Modern Foreign Languages are also part of this process, as some new qualifications are developed and currently tested in pilot school. An alternative to the traditional GCSE French is worked upon by the examining body Edexcel. This new generation exam is called GCSE in applied French. The objective of this qualification is to enable students to develop skills which can be applied to professional context such as business, tourism, media and communication. Students are assessed by sitting external examination, which are mainly ICT based. There are 60 pilot schools across the United Kingdom testing this revolutionary exam, and the first formal examination will take place in 2006.

II.2.d. Implementation

Most of the aspects of the National Strategy for Languages are an on-going process that should have reached its climax by 2012, when all primary schools will be expected to provide languages lessons to their pupils. However, in order to launch this Strategy the Government invested £1.2 million to start a Modern Foreign Languages pilot. This was to provide a Framework of teaching objectives and guidance, training and network meeting. An additional investment of £10 million was planned by 2005/2006 to sustain the Strategy. The funding is to be allocated to introduce the primary school entitlement, to increase of the number of Modern Foreign Languages teachers, to provide staff training and development, to promote best practice and to develop international partnerships.

A National Director for Languages was appointed to overview, expand and deliver the Strategy. The Centre for Information on Language Teaching and Research lead by Dr Lid King plays also a major role in the implementation of the Strategy. Their knowledge of the evolution of the educational system and also their link with professional makes them a valuable source of information and advice. Local Education Authorities should support the Government in the application of the Strategy. They are closer to schools and communities and are able to obtain more easily feedback about how the decisions are perceived and implemented.

The success of the "Languages for All: Languages for Life; a Strategy for England" is to be measured against a set of outcomes amongst which, whether the needs of businesses are met, and whether the standards of teaching are better at all Key Stages. Other factors that will validate the fulfillment of the scheme are the increase of the demands for adults' language learning, the flexibility of the routes into learning a Modern Foreign Language, and more importantly the quality of the entitlement provided at Key Stage 2.

II. 3. Framework for Teaching Modern Foreign Languages: Years 7, 8 and 9

The Framework for Teaching Modern Foreign Languages is designed to support most languages taught at Key Stage 3. It is built on a similar pattern to the framework for Primary Schools, which is a recent scheme to enhance the level of achievement of students in English at Primary School level by creating a Literacy hour. This Hour consists in teaching the whole class for 75% of the time, and is shared in 10 minutes of reviewing, consolidating and introducing new objectives, 15 minutes of work on the word level, and 15 minutes on reading and writing. The remaining 25% of the time is dedicated to group work on guided tasks or independent work. The lesson ends up by a plenary session which is included in the time dedicated to the whole class work. This way of managing time appears to set a routine and makes it easier for pupils to make the transition from one year group to the next. A similar framework exists for English at Key Stage 3, which means that the government wishes to bridge the gap between primary and secondary school education.

The National Framework for Modern Foreign Languages is a non statutory document published in spring 2003 and was available nationally from September 2003. The Government provided training for all Modern Foreign Languages colleagues from autumn 2003. In order to achieve this necessity to train all teachers the government provided money to supply cover teachers.

II.3.a. Aims and objectives

"The framework and its objectives are designed to give teachers a mental map of languages learning over Key Stage 3. The framework should not be seen as a dry menu of linguistics. The grammar is not a separate heading but is to support work at various levels. A key function of the Modern Foreign Languages Framework is to encourage a rethink of where the emphasis should be in languages teaching and learning." (Dfes, 2003:16). The purpose of this framework is to raise standards by improving the quality of teaching and learning.

The teaching has to be focused by planning lessons according to objectives and ensure pupils are fully aware of those. Students need to be challenged and teachers therefore have to set high expectations so that students try to surpass their current level of achievement. The learning needs are to be structured with lessons beginning with a starter activity to catch students' attention as soon as they enter the classroom. Then, they should be a variety of activities delivered with pace. The lesson should end up with a plenary to ascertain whether the objectives have been met and provide formative assessment in order to inform the planning of subsequent lessons. The learning needs to be motivating and engaging by integrating fun activities where appropriate. Teachers should seek students' ability to do independent learning by providing frames and learning strategies. It is also necessary to build pupils' reflection by teaching them to think about what they learn and how they do so. They have to be involved in setting themselves targets whilst they expand their learning. Pupils have to be more aware of the curriculum. It needs to be more accessible so that students are engaged in their learning, and become independent in doing so.

There are five main strands within this Framework which are a focus on the word level, the sentence level, reading and writing, listening and speaking and cultural knowledge and contact. It moves away from topic dependence to concentrate on the skills students need to develop in order to apprehend a language and to master it.

The Framework systematically builds progression and is designed to give the teaching and learning focus for each year; Year 7: foundation, Year 8: acceleration and Year 9: independence. The training programme provides guidance to teachers and Heads of Modern Foreign Languages departments on planning schemes of work, which should be amended and strengthened but not necessarily rewritten.

In the United Kingdom, teachers at different stages of their career are involved in writing schemes of work. This enables them to have a better knowledge of the curriculum. Using the Schemes of Work published as a guidance by the Department for Education and Skills, and merging them with the ones produced by publishers, teachers manage to create a working document that is suitable to their department needs, but which is also respecting the governmental guidelines concerning the Key Stage 3 Strategy and Programme of Study.

II.3.c. Cross curricular themes

The framework strongly recommends a link between school subjects in order to provide students with transferable skills and effective learning strategies. Numeracy, Literacy, Citizenship, and a coherent assessment policy are to be developed in the various subjects in order to increase each student's potential.

"Numeracy is a proficiency which is developed mainly in Mathematics but also in other subjects. It is more than an ability to do simple arithmetic. It involves developing confidence and competence with numbers and measures. It requires understanding of the number system, a repertoire of mathematical techniques and an inclination and ability to solve quantitative or spatial system in a range of contexts. Numeracy also demands understanding of the way in which data is gathered by counting and measuring, and presented in graphs, diagrams, charts and tables." (DfEE 2001a: 1.9)

Teaching a Modern Foreign Language includes teaching the culture of the countries where the language is spoken. There are various ways in which Numeracy and cultural dimension are merging, as for instance, asking students to read the 24-hour clock, which is the tradition in continental Europe. Often, in role plays, pupils are asked to tell their phone number, which works in pairs in France, and this implies a lot of concentration, as naturally they would be tempted to read the numbers one by one. The postcodes as well are built up differently. Talking about the weather can become an opportunity to use maths, as you can ask the pupils to change from Fahrenheit to Celsius.

"All secondary school teachers have a responsibility to teach key skills in addition to their own subject" (Tanner, Jones and Davies, 2002: 189). If the bridge to be made between Numeracy and Modern Foreign Languages does not appear obvious at first, a thorough knowledge of the curriculum and schemes of work prove the link that Modern Foreign Languages departments managed to build in their teaching. Therefore they respect the government guidelines, but also fulfill their responsibilities as teacher, that is not only teaching a subject but also teaching learning tools.

Literacy is integral to all learning. Every school in the United Kingdom is supposed to have its own Literacy policy. It has to be part of a whole school approach, and roles and responsibilities are clearly dispatched throughout the staff. The task of the director of learning is to monitor that the policy is implemented, in each department, and he gives guidance to all the staff as how to teach literacy. Each department is expected to identify literacy skills to focus on in their department and include suitable strategies in the schemes of work.

Most school policies group four main skills, that is to say speaking, listening, reading and writing, which form the foundation to elaborate principles and precise targets in working upon literacy. For example, pupils should be taught in all subjects to express themselves correctly and to read accurately and with understanding.

Indeed, Modern Foreign Languages are in direct link with literacy skills, as pupils are taught a foreign language mainly throughout their knowledge of their native language. Besides Hawkins suggests (1996: 21) that "one of the most effective ways of understanding the structure of a language is to compare it with the structure of another language". Examples of elements studied in a language classroom should highlight this idea: basic and advanced grammar skills, grammatical terminology, parts of speech, sentence construction, listening for gist and detail, guess the meaning of a word thanks to the context, ability to use a dictionary and glossaries. In addition pupils are encouraged to read for their own pleasure from KS3 onwards.

Most of these activities are included in the Programme of Study for Modern Foreign Languages. Furthermore, the National Curriculum for Modern Foreign Languages says simply and clearly that "Since standard English, spoken and written, is the predominant language in which knowledge and skills are taught and learned, pupils be taught to recognise and use standard English", even if on another hand, target language should be used as often as possible. Also, in the same source, there are specific references to the English programme of study in the areas of grammar, drafting written work and knowing the technical vocabulary of a language (DfEE / QCA, 1999: 16 17).

"Citizenship gives pupils the knowledge, skills and understanding to play an effective role in society, at local, national and international levels. It helps them to become informed, thoughtful and responsible citizens, who are aware of their duties and their rights... it also teaches them about our economy and democratic institutions and values; encourages respect for different national, religious and ethnic identities; develops pupil's ability to reflect on issues and take part in discussions." (DfEE / QCA, 1999:183)

The Programme of Study for Citizenship divides in three strands, which are:

- Knowledge and understanding about becoming informed citizens.

- Developing skills of enquiry and communication

- Developing skills of participation and responsible actions.

Each school decides to deliver the statutory and/or non-statutory guidelines for Citizenship, Careers Education and PSHCE in a way that suits them best. In Modern Foreign Languages, several topics can lead to conversations about citizenship. In Year 7, it is already possible to include the concept of "citizen of the world", when pupils are taught Nationalities. In Year 9, pupils learn about the environment. It can lead to a debate about what they should do to "save the planet". In Year 13, pupils talk about global matters like politics and racism. They are about to be allowed to vote, and preparing them to the topic "Crime and Punishment" for instance, is a good opportunity to make them think about their own country, through comparing it to France or Germany.

"Assessment is a crucial part of the teaching process... it enables the teacher to gauge whether what has been taught has in fact been learnt by the students. It provides information for the student on his/ her progress. It provides information for the parents". (Morgan and Neil, 2001: 107).

At the start of a lesson, pupils need to be set clear objectives, in order to know and understand the purpose of their learning. At the end of the lesson, teachers have to check whether these objectives have been met. Plenary activities are useful in this matter, as it is often a way of reinforcing the learning but also evaluating pupils.

The teacher training provided in The United Kingdom advises teachers to set differentiated learning outcomes in three different strands. There are to be expectations for "some students", which represent more or less the top third of the pupils in a class, and the goals are higher. The group labelled "most students" are the average pupils in term of achievement. Teachers should be more lenient for some pupils experiencing difficulties in learning a new language, or pupil having special educational needs. They belong to the last group entitled "all students" on a lesson plan. "Formative assessment is an ongoing assessment, conducted at regular intervals by the classroom teacher. It enables the teacher to take stock of what the students have learned". (Morgan and Neil, 2001: 107).

Four main ways of assessing have been listed in Teaching Modern Foreign Languages, Morgan and Neil, 2001: 108 "diagnostic assessment...used usually to identify particular areas requiring work....evaluative assessment is based on feelings and experience rather than objective criteria... motivational assessment is designed to provide learners with short-term achievable goals...summative assessment is the final stage assessment and the term is usually applied to end of key stage tests or GCSE."

Assessment is vital to ensure an effective learning for pupils. Formal written assessment seems the easiest to handle as it leaves to the teacher more time to think about the performance as he marks the paper. Listening and speaking appear to be more difficult to assess. Every school has its own marking policy and tries to be consistent across the subjects. In school X, students' book have to be marked every 2 weeks, giving a grade for effort which can be excellent, very good, good, unsatisfactory or weak; and awarding a mark for the content between 1 and 5, 1 representing 90% or more of the task completed accurately. This way of assessing students' work is used to grade their homework or class work. This enables teachers, alongside with end of unit assessment, to give students a level of achievement, and to set for them long and short term targets.

Teachers are provided with loads of prior data concerning each student in their groups. Students in the United Kingdom take various formal assessments, and schools are provided with Software which manages to infer predicted grades for examination such as GCSE thanks to the results students obtained at these tests done in Year 7. These predictions are said to be rather accurate and students are aware of them.

Cynthia Frey, Masters in English Language, Literature and Culture, and PGCE educational adviser in Egypt, Head of French Department, Teacher of French and German.