Insurance National Producer Blog: Revolution

Showing posts with label Revolution. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

China's Gray Revolution - Why China May Invent the New Business of Aging

Discussions of China tend to focus on size - a nation of over 1.3 billion people certainly deserves attention from business and investors worldwide. But, 'total' numbers reveal little about underlying social and market dynamics nor the opportunities they may present.

China is undergoing a 'gray' revolution. While discussions of aging and innovation almost exclusively focus on the industrialized economies of Europe, North America, Japan and the tiger economies of Asia, China may be the venue to watch, and for innovators to engage in what's new in aging. A convergence of forces -- demographic transition, family dynamics, and institutional readiness provide a promising market for innovations in health delivery, eldercare and aging services.

Disruptive Demographics in the Middle Kingdom

Gray China - Asia Studies Monitor data indicate that life expectancy in China was a young 41 years old compared to 65 and older in Europe and North America in 1950. China is closing the longevity gap. Today, life expectancy in China has jumped to nearly 79 years compared to 82+ years in western industrialized economies.

According to the United Nations, the number of people over 60 in China is approximately 167 million. Imagine - an entire nation of older adults larger than the total populations of Germany and France combined. In only 10 years, China's older population is projected to be 248 million and by mid-century 437 million people or more than the total projected population of the United States in 2050.

Living Globally But Aging Alone - Two socio-economic factors shape China's aging today: fewer children and economic development. The oft-cited one child one family policy, instituted in 1979, has been effective in managing population growth. It has also resulted in a fundamental change in China's support ratio (the number of people working compared to the number of people over retirement age). According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, China's support ratio is more than 5 working people for every older person, by 2030 it may be only 2.5 working adults, and by mid-century ~1.6 working age people to every adult over retirement age.

Globalization brings change to even the most traditional families. Economic opportunity is growing fastest in China's urban centers. Income for younger workers may be 3X higher in cities than in rural regions. Consequently, many adult children are leaving the family home for work in other regions. An extraordinary number and proportion of elderly Chinese are aging alone. China Daily reports that an estimated 80 million (of the nation's 167 million 60+ population) older adults live alone. If accurate, these numbers reflect more than 47 percent of the older population aging alone compared to 30 percent of older people "home alone" in the United States - greatly challenging the commonly held belief that family tradition and culture shapes the alternative futures of aging around the world.

Care Gap - The family has traditionally provided eldercare. Consequently, China has an underdeveloped aging services system. Today there is a growing care gap to meet daily and long-term care needs. Community senior centers are slowly emerging in cities and some rural areas. The China National Committee on Ageing estimates that about 25 percent or 30 million older people need long-term care due to disability and disease. Compared to an estimated 50-70 long-term care beds per 1000 older adults in industrialized economies, there are only ~10 per 1000 older people in China. 2008 data indicates that most of these beds are already filled. Beyond facilities, the formal "careforce" in China is approximately 30,000 workers - estimates suggest that 10 million workers may be needed.

Innovating a New Industry of Old Age in China

An underdeveloped network of aging services and related institutions is a problem for China, but it may also be an opportunity. Institutions are generally biased in favor of 'yesterday's' definition of a problem and yesterday's range of available solutions. Simply applying models of aging services from other nations, many designed decades ago, will not necessarily meet China's needs. Aging in China will require engineering new organizations that combine public and private providers, services and technologies. China's demographic imperative to do something now, without a real legacy of service providers wedded to established practices and technology, is an opportunity to invent a new business of aging. Recognizing the clear need, China's Ministry of Civil Affairs Wang Hui declared in a People's Daily interview "We want to turn elderly care services into an industry in the long run."

Insight & Innovations

What are the opportunities for creative public-private partnerships, technology and services to support China's aging population? Remote family care, health & wellness and aging services are three categories that could draw upon China's existing capacity, a wide variety of global companies, NGOs and technologies to implement a uniquely Chinese eldercare services industry in the near-term.

Remote Family Care - China's 4-2-1 family structure, four elderly parents, a young couple, with one child is Asia's sandwich generation. Insurers that currently offer life products in China, e.g., Allianz, Ping An, may find that their growing market of young urban consumers are a cross-sell opportunity for a product to provide home care services to their parents living near or a region away. Other firms that may find family care services an adjacent opportunity to their core business are banks and money transfer agents that facilitate funds transfers from children working in cities to their rural parents. Insurers and banks could aggregate these demands and source homecare, maintenance and other services to public or approved private providers.

Maintaining regular social connection with family is critical to the health and wellbeing of an elderly parent - but it is also important to young parents seeking family advice and grandchildren learning about their past. An estimated 384 million Chinese are now online - not the same as human touch, but 'virtual' touch may replace no touch at all. AgeLab field research indicates that selected senior centers in urban areas have one or more Internet connections. Community centers and senior housing, such as those offered by Provincial governments, Society Care (established 1950) and Modern Care (established 1990) should make these services an investment priority and promote their use. Introduction of easy-to-use video conferencing applications and Internet social networking sites such as China's Kaixin, Weibo, QQ and Youku are the new tools to connect the generations.

Health & Wellness - Maintaining good dietary habits becomes more important with age. But, eating, and eating well, is a social activity. Older adults that live alone become less interested and, eventually less able, to prepare a nutritious meal. Working within the context of traditional Chinese cooking, food companies (e.g., Groupe Danone, Nestle, General Mills) may find easy-to-prepare, easy to digest, high nutrition 'functional foods' be successful in China's fast growing aging market.

Managing chronic disease (particularly hypertension, diabetes, heart disease) in China, as in every other country, is critical to wellbeing across the lifespan as well as managing the personal and public cost of disability. Disease management services that focus on diet, physical activity, medication compliance, and behavior modification (e.g., smoking cessation) are expanding into developing economies and reaching disadvantaged elderly. Healthways, for example, partners with Fleury S.A. to provide disease management and wellness services to 40 million Brazilians. In Singapore, the Tsao Foundation provides social care services and operates clinics that are a model of integrative medicine using the best of both traditional Chinese and western medical practice.

Telemedicine may be one of the best investments for an aging China. Telemedicine is not a second best alternative to care. The Scottish Centre for Telehealth, in partnership with Cisco, has shown that telemedicine can produce an over 90 percent patient satisfaction rating. NGOs, telecommunications companies and large health services providers (e.g., Partners HealthCare Center for Connected Health, University of Rochester) could be valuable partners to connect rural elderly and caregivers with specialists within China and around the world.

Aging Services - 'Smart' elderly housing will be a growing need. Public housing that provides a common smart technology infrastructure may facilitate the delivery of services that can be scaled across a province or the nation. For example, selected senior housing facilities in Singapore share a common information communications technology infrastructure, e.g., Internet access in each unit. Rethinking housing as a platform for technology-enabled services may optimize the integration of 'intelligent' devices and services already on the market (e.g., monitoring and health management applications offered by Philips, GE, and other firms in the global Continua Health Alliance) supporting safety, disease management, and social services.

Despite advances in technology, caregiving remains a high-touch business. The careforce shortage in China is critical. Development of professional programs and certification of formal caregivers would benefit from collaboration with long-term care companies and aging services organizations with expertise in training and the use of new technologies (e.g., HelpAge International, Home Instead, Golden Living). In addition to the training, expertise and services, investment in large-scale (provincial as well as national systems) health and homecare information management systems may help families understand the range of available services and government to ensure the highest quality of care.

Aging in China is not just about the elderly. It is about the wellbeing of all people in China as well as its performance in the world economy. Changing demographics, lifestyles, and an institutional readiness for innovation are converging to create an extraordinary opportunity for business, aging services and ultimately China's people to build an "elder care services industry". If successful, it might just become another leading export.

MIT AgeLab Research Assistant Victoria Lee conducted field research in China and translation of references in preparation of this article.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

History of the Revolution of Trade Union

Trade Union is one kind of labor union. These are one kind of organizations where the labors become accumulate to achieve some of their rights like proper working condition and proper wages. These organizations or unions negotiate to the employers to get their rights as well as to get the employees satisfaction with maintaining the employees' satisfaction also.

In order to realize the union history we have to look at the past. There was a system in Europe called the guild system which worked with the protection of some specific professions by maintaining advancement and skills. But the guild system should not be considered the same as union but the guild system must be told as the pioneer of the union system.

Before the industrial revolution, workers tended to work at their home to produce goods. But approximately at the time of eighteenth century due to the industrial revolution people became interested about joining at the industries. When a massive number of people started to work under one or more employee then it was becoming a necessary to make a representative of the workers to share their conditions with the employer. In the USA, early trade unions and workers performed very effective activities to achieve their rights.

The idea of Unions became very popular in the USA at nineteenth century. During that time the first national trade-union appeared called the National Labor Union. This organization was first appeared at the year of 1866 and the most important feature of this union is it was not for any particular labors. It was rally effective to gain all rights of labors working in every sector in USA. With the features of child labor protection and legislation about eight hour working shift, the Knight of Labor came out as a trade union in the USA at the year of 1869.

Whatever, there are several unions now all over the world who are working to gain the proper rights of the labors.

There is a lot of history behind the formation of a Trade Union. Click here to know more about Trade Union

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Impact of the French Revolution on 18th Century Europe and Relevance to Contemporary Christianity

INTRODUCTION

Events of 1789 formed the catalyst that exploded the powder keg of accumulated grievances in France. Indeed "the French Revolution began when Louis XVI called the States-General to provide money for his bankrupt government" (The World Book Encyclopedia, Vol.7, 1991, p.450). The outbreak of the French Revolution in 1789 produced intense hostility to Christianity because "the Roman church was identified by the people with the earlier government of France and suffered greatly" (Harman and Renwick, 1999, p.170). Lefebvre (1947) observed that in a total population of probably twenty three million, there were certainly not more than one hundred thousand priests, monks and nuns, and four hundred thousand nobles. The rest constituted the Third Estate. This secular event shows the contemporary Church the peril that awaits a nation that rejects God. The point of the observation is that although the French Revolution negatively affected Christianity, the attempt at deChristianization was unable to blot the 'faith of our fathers living still'.

RELIGIOUS BACKGROUND TO THE CONFLICT

According to Noll (2000), "a number of long-festering conditions had prepared the way for this attack on Christianity" (p.247). Paradoxically, some of these were of Christian origin. Centuries earlier, Augustine had declared that man should not have dominion over man, for he is a rational creature made in the image of God. Bellarmine, the Jesuit Cardinal opined that it depended on the consent of the people whether kings, consuls or other magistrates were to be established in authority over them. He further observed that the people should change a kingdom into an aristocracy if there was legitimate cause. Latourette (1953) therefore referred to the French Revolution as "a secularized version of the heavenly city as perceived by Christians" (p.1007).

Before the outbreak of the revolution in France, bad economic, political, social and legal conditions, the successful example of the English Revolution of 1689 and the American Revolution of 1776 were fused by the development of an ideology that rationalized the right of popular revolution against Louis XVI. This ideology was the result of the teachings of the philosophes. While Rousseau and Montesquieu provided the political atmosphere for revolution, Voltaire criticized the church. Cairns (1981) admitted that there were grounds for criticism of the Roman Catholic Church in France. It owned much land and was as responsible as the secular state in the dealings with the people. The public resented various tithes imposed by the church, rigorous repression of religious dissenters, and the non-productive monkish orders. Nichols (1932) suspected that "the greatest cause of the hostility of the church was its enormous wealth and the selfish use made of it" (p.96) since the masses were ruined by cruel taxation at the expense of higher clergy who were generally lazy, luxurious and immoral.

If the 17th century was the age of orthodoxy, the eighteenth was the age of nationalism, a result of cold orthodoxy and scientific developments. The deadly result was that "revelation tended to take the back seat to reason and knowledge gained by sense perception" (Vos, 1960, p.99). When scientists investigated the form of the universe, they formed the idea of a clockwise universe - God's world was seen as gigantic, well-ordained giant clock.

IMPLICATIONS FOR 18TH CENTURY EUROPE

The French Revolution is viewed as a turning point because it was seen as an important stage in a succession of movements that later spread across the globe to ultimately affect the life of mankind.

It is observed that the effects were especially serious for Christianity since they brought actions which struck at the privileges and status of the Roman Catholic Church. The Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen on August 26 1789 held that "the source of all sovereignty is located in the nation; no body, no individual can exercise authority which does not emanate from it expressly" (Noll, 2000, p.247). The peasants were relieved of a burden which had taken about a twentieth of their produce when tithes were abolished. Consequently, the church was deprived of one of its chief sources of revenue. Church land, which comprised about a fifth of the area of France was confiscated and became the property of the state. In July 1790, the Civil Constitution of the Clergy was enacted by the National Assembly. Among other things, bishops were to be elected by the voters who chose the civil officials and the pope was merely to be notified of their choice. Payment of the clergy by the state was no blessing in disguise since the former was to take an oath of allegiance to the latter. [It must be observed that Spener criticized caesaropapism (doctrine of state control over the church) in his significant publication way back in 1675]. The pope's power was reduced to that of stating the dogma of the Roman Catholic Church. Indeed "churchmen felt this new act meant secularization of the church and they were violently opposed to it" (Cairns, 1981, p.390).

Unlike the situation in the United States, separation of church and state by the French Revolution and later in the Soviet Union and its sphere of influence was an attempt to totally exterminate the church and to replace it with nationalism. The Roman Catholic Church and the French state were completely separated during the reign of terror of 1793 and 1794 when so many were executed for counter revolutionary activities.

The programme of deChristianization gained momentum when the convention decreed that a commune had the right to renounce the Catholic form of worship. The calendar adopted on October 3 1793 made every tenth day rather than Sunday a day of rest. On November 7, 1793, the Archbishop of Paris appeared before the Convention and "solemnly resigned his Episcopal functions" (Encyclopaedia Britiannica, vol.15, 1989, p.498). A certain Mademoiselle Maillard, an opera dancer, wearing the three colours of the new republic on November 10, 1793 was enthroned as the goddess of Reason upon the high altar of Notre Dame, the Roman Catholic Cathedral of Paris, and there she received the homage of the revolutionists. Notre Dame was rechristened the Temple of Reason. Another step adopted by the Convention was the ordering of churches and parsonages to be used as school houses and poor houses thus effectively preventing public and official worship. The Feasts of Reason both at Paris and elsewhere soon "degenerated into mere orgies, disreputable women playing the part of goddesses and enacting bacchanals in the churches" (Martin, 1877, p.552). The precarious situation during the Reign of Terror forced many Christians to renounce their trust in God. Assessing the situation, Kuiper (1964) pointed out that "it is not possible to say how many Protestants as well as Catholics renounced their faith at this time, but the number was large" (p.310). Although the Convention passed a decree reaffirming the principle of the freedom of worship, the Directory and its regime were basically anti-Christian. The interests of Christianity and European civilization were no longer regarded as two expressions of the same reality. In other words, there was a signal of the demise of Christendom.

Kings initially viewed themselves as God's representatives on earth and considered all disobedience and rebellion to be sinful. A dangerous feeling of infallibility, considerable serenity and moderation therefore gained control of monarchs. The French Revolution completely repudiated this divine right of kings and "asserted the doctrine that the right to rule came from the people" (The World Book Encyclopedia, vol.5, 1971, p.199). Although Napoleon eventually recognized the Roman Catholic religion as the religion of the great majority of French citizens, he did not make it the established religion. The clergy were to be paid by the state but the property taken from the Roman Church in 1790 was not to be returned to it. In fact, Latourette (1953) observed with brutal truth that Napoleon "regarded the church as an institution which must be recognized and used for his purposes" (p.1011).

The French Revolution and Napoleon brought grave embarrassment to missions. The direct result was a sharp decline of the faith in some geographic frontiers. Few missionaries were sent from Europe and it was difficult to render aid to those already in the field. The Society of Foreign Missions of Paris was compelled to seek headquarters outside of France. The Congregation of the Propagation of the Faith, the bureau through which the Papacy supervised missions abroad, was driven out of Rome. This led to a marked falling off in numbers and morale of the Roman Catholic community in India. Adverse domestic conditions coupled with the handicaps in Europe threatened the extinction of the church in China. The occupation of Spain by Napoleonic armies and the attack on Portugal greatly affected missions in Latin America. Conditions in Russia were also adverse. Parishes lost the right of electing their clergy, a privilege enjoyed since the era of Peter the Great. In a brilliant summary, Noll (2000) commented that "turmoil from the French Revolution and then the wave of national liberation movements fostered by Napoleon further diminished European concern for cross-cultural Christian expansion" (p.274). The revolution greatly affected Lutherans in the German states. War and suffering revealed that skepticism and infidelity were not sufficient to meet the needs of the human spirit and multitudes turned again to religious faith. The old Holy Roman Empire was dissolved in 1806, stimulating the strengthening of independent states like Austria and Prussia. Later in the century, this contributed to the unification of the German people under the leadership of Prussia. Calvinism in Europe also felt the shock of the French Revolution. Skepticism had already weakened this group in France, Switzerland, the German states and the Low Countries. According to Baker (1959), the "political conditions that continued through the Congress of Vienna in 1815 brought disorganization and uncertainty to continental Calvinism" (p.321).

Beyond the dark clouds were shades of silver lining, which several scholars tend to overlook. Perhaps a positive view was that "society was being directed toward the good of the whole community instead of toward the benefit of a tiny elite of kings, nobles and bishops" (Noll, 2000, p.248). Grievous as were the losses suffered by Christianity, "there was ample evidence that the faith was by no means moribund" (Latourette, 1953, p.1012). Indications of vitality (old and new) were evident. These could be found among the Roman Catholics of the eastern churches and in Protestantism. If anything, "secularization of the west was not going to blot out the faith" (Noll, 2000, p.260). Liberal, sectarian and traditionalist responses to the marginalization of European Christendom all had notable vigor though at varying degrees. European thought was skillfully sifted in a new world in order to preserve an intellectually vigorous Christian faith. Groups like the Oxford Movement applied lessons of the early church of the perils of the present. In his stimulating Church History lectures at West Africa Theological Seminary, Lagos, Nigeria, Dr. William Faupel observed that secularization is not inherently evil and argued that there must be a positive interaction, that is, taking the gospel in the mindset of the people.

RELEVANCE TO CONTEMPORARY CHRISTIANITY

Many biblical scholars agreed that the punctuation of papal power in France was a fulfillment of prophecies of Daniel 7 and Revelation 13, which they believed predicted the demise of Roman Catholicism. In this light, Faupel (1996) observed that "the French Revolution became the Rosetta Stone by which all scriptural prophecy could be correlated with the events of human history" (p.92). The lessons for contemporary Christianity are significant.

Righteousness exalts a nation but sin is indeed a reproach to any people. Even today, the Wesleys are credited with saving England from a bloody, political revolution such as befell France. While the common people were as oppressed and deprived as the French, the English people could cope with their oppression because of their faith in God and their adherence to Christian principles. The English revival caused the people to look to God for hope whereas the French had only politicians and atheistic philosophers. The lesson is that God can avert destruction in a nation that acknowledges Him as Saviour. The situation in Sierra Leone in May 2000 is a case in point. God miraculously saved the nation at a time when destruction loomed large. The nation responded to the call to shout 'Jesus' at 5:00 p.m. on Monday May 9 2000. God honoured this demonstration of faith and reliance on Him as the only hope. The peaceful elections in May 2002 and August/September 2007 could also be attributed to the redeeming work of God in a land where He is exalted. In like manner, Horton (1993) firmly believed that "God brought about a peaceful change in the protestant land of England, in contrast to the turmoil of the Roman Catholic France" (p.72).

Secondly, the church in any nation should not fraternize with the state to oppress masses since the latter could rebel with frenzied violence. In France, the revolutionists demonstrated that "they could break down barriers if they were driven to desperation" (Rowe, 1931, p.420). Furthermore, ideas that glorify man and sentence God to temporary or permanent exile could be dangerous to any nation. The French Revolution shocked Europe and awakened people to the power of ideas and forces that had become part of western culture. For many, "those ideas and forces connoted the disruptions and destruction that could be expected from unrestrained rationalism" (Manschreck, 1974, 298).

From the study, the researcher realizes that pagan religions and ideas could penetrate areas once dominated by Christianity as a result of the state of the church. During his lectures, Dr. Faupel lamented that an impending doom could await the church in North America because of inherent weakness including racist Christian policies. As Rodney observed (1972), "racism...[was] a set of generalizations and assumptions, which had no scientific bias, but...rationalized in every sphere from theology to biology" (p.99). Contemporary Christianity should realize that it should not be the cold impotent ash (like the church in France before the revolution) but a vibrant church fulfilling the Great Commission. Sumrall (1980) caustically dismissed refusal to spread the gospel as "reckless spiritual homicide" (p.8). The contemporary church must be willing to sacrifice like Christ and the saints of old if the earth should be filled with the glory of God as the waters cover the sea. Houghton (1980) hoped that the contemporary church would be mindful of the fact that "when the church goes astray, denying Him who had bought His people with His precious blood, the Lord [sends] trials and afflictions to correct His unfaithful children" (p.34).

CONCLUSION

The above notwithstanding, the blood of a martyr is seed for the church. After the French Revolution, Christianity, probably to the dismay of the revolutionaries, did not die. Truth (Jesus) was in the grave for three days but eventually resurrected. Persecution, in the history of Christianity, could be regarded as a stepping stone rather than a stumbling block. Fire did not beget cold and impotent ash. After the French Revolution, the church became much more involved in speaking on relevant issues of the day. Christianity was viewed from a different perspective. Evangelism was given a thoughtful consideration. In spite of all the negative effects of the French Revolution, the brand of Christianity that emerged transformed itself by positively interacting with the philosophical mindset of the day.

LIST OF REFERENCES

Baker, Robert A. 1959. A survey of Christian history. Nashville: Broadman Press.

Cairns, Earle E. 1981. Christianity through the centuries: a history of the Christian Church. 2nd ed.

Grand Rapids, Michigan: The Zondervan Corporation.

The Encyclopaedia Britannica. 1989 ed., s.v. "French Revolution".

Faupel, William. 1996. The everlasting gospel: the significance of eschatology in the development of Pentecostal thought. Sheffield: Sheffield Academic Press.

Harman, A.M. and A.M. Renwick. 1999. The story of the church. 3rd ed. Leicester: Varsity Press.

Horton, Beka. 1993. 1980. Sketches from church history. Pennsylvania: The Banner of Truth.

Kuiper, B.K. 1964. The church in history. Michigan: The National Union of Christian Schools.

Latourette, Kenneth S. 1953. A history of Christianity. New York: Harper and Row Publishers.

Lefebvre, George. 1947. The coming of the French Revolution. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

Lewis, C.S. 1970. God in the dock: essays on theology and ethics. Michigan: William E. Eerdmans Publishing Co.

Manschreck, Clyde L. 1974. A history of Christianity in the world: from persecution to uncertainty.

New York: Prentice Hall.

Martin, Henri. 1877. A popular history of France from the first revolution to the present time, Vol.1.

Philadelphia: The Westminster Press.

Noll, Mark A. 2000. Turning points: decisive moments in the history of Christianity. 2nd ed.

Grand Rapids, Michigan: Baker Academic.

Rodney, Walter. 1972. How Europe underdeveloped Africa. London: Bogle L'Ouverture Publications.

Rowe, Henri K. 1931. History of the Christian people. New York: The Macmillan Company.

Sumrall, Lester. 1980. Where was God when pagan religions began? Indiana: LeSEA Publishing Co.

Vos, Howard F. 1960. Highlights of church history. Nebraska: Back to the Bible Publishers.

The World Book Encyclopaedia, 1971 ed., s.v. "Divine rights of kings".

The World Bank Encyclopaedia, 1971 e.d., s.v. "French Revolution".

AUTHOR SIGNATURE

Oliver L.T. Harding, who obtained his GCE O & A Levels from the Sierra Leone Grammar School and the Albert Academy respectively, is currently Senior & Acting Librarian of Fourah Bay College, University of Sierra Leone. He is a part time lecturer at the Institute of Library, Information & Communication Studies (INSLICS), Fourah Bay College and the Extension Programme at the Evangelical College of Theology (T.E.C.T) at Hall Street, Brookfields; Vice President of the Sierra Leone Association of Archivists, Librarians & Information Scientists (SLAALIS); a member of the American Theological Library Association (ATLA) and an associate of the Chartered Institute of Library & Information Professionals (CILIP). His certificates, secular and sacred, include: a certificate and diploma from the Freetown Bible Training Centre; an upper second class B.A. Hons. Degree in Modern History (F.B.C.); a post-graduate diploma from the Institute of Library Studies (INSLIBS, F.B.C) a masters degree from the Institute of Library, Information & Communication Studies (INSLICS, F.B.C.) and a masters degree in Biblical Studies from West Africa Theological Seminary, affiliate of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, where he won the prize for academic excellence as the Best Graduating Student in 2005. Oliver, a writer, musician and theologian, is married (to Francess) with two children (Olivia & Francis).

Email: oltharding@yahoo.com

Mobile: 232-2233-460-330

Thursday, December 1, 2011

National Debt, Jobs, And The Coming Energy Revolution

"These are times that try men's souls."

Since 2008, we have spent trillions to jump-start the economy with little or no perceptible results. Meanwhile, in our nation's capital our "leadership"- Congress and the administration- are arguing about the bar bill on the Titanic rather than focusing on the one major opportunity, energy, that can resolve the fiscal mess that they have created over the past 30 years. The country is at the cusp of an energy revolution, which if exploited will spawn a second industrial revolution.

The new exploration and drilling technologies have resulted in the expansion of our domestic oil and natural gas reserves. The recoverable natural gas reserves alone are estimated at 2,170 trillion cubic feet (TCF). These reserves are composed of liquid and natural gas (LNG) which can be processed into propane, benzene, etc. The natural gas reserves alone can make the U.S. the number one producer and exporter of energy for the next hundred years, and solve our fiscal, GDP growth and unemployment problems.

In 18 years, the world's energy requirements are forecast to grow from 87 billion barrels of oil to 99 billion barrels. The energy revolution would add millions of jobs in extraction, infrastructure, support and service activities, and the cheaper energy could result in repatriating some of the manufacturing and service jobs that were ceded to other countries. The economies of the U.S. and the 33 states that contain shale deposits within their borders would flourish. North Dakota, at the forefront of the energy revolution, has an unemployment rate of 3.5%, well below the national average.

To put the energy issue in perspective, the U.S. consumes 7.3 billion barrels of oil a year (20 million a day), of which 4.2 billion are imported (valued at $ 336 trillion). Of that number, approximately 20% (valued at $70 trillion) is imported from the Middle East. A recent Goldman Sacks report predicts that by 2017, America will produce 10.9 million barrels of oil a day, and become the largest oil producer surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia. The increase will come largely from the shale natural gas and oil deposits that cover most of the country. By 2025, with a common sense energy policy, we could be self-sufficient and net exporters of energy. That would wipe out the $336 trillion that we now pay foreign governments, and we would enjoy a surplus in our balance of payment account. Countries in Europe and Asia currently pay $8 to $12 for a cf of LNG, which is currently selling at the well head for $1 cf. The revenue potential from exporting oil and natural gas is enormous. The only impediments are the number of drilling rigs available, and the dogged determination of the environmentalist to frustrate progress.

Our energy policy should at a minimum encompass the following:

Mandate that by:

- 2018, all new cars and trucks must be hybrids: electric and natural gas or petroleum and natural gas.

- 2030, all cars and trucks be built to operate on clean energy sources-electric or natural gas.

Mandate a minimum 50 MPG performance standard for all new cars and light trucks by 2020.

Mandate that by 2020, all utilities, manufacturing facilities, large malls, and skyscrapers that now use fossil fuels switch to natural gas. All new homes and structures built after 2020 to use clean energy.

Eliminate all subsidies to oil, ethanol and all other energy producers, and consider a program to subsidize the conversion of vehicles and homes to natural gas.

Accelerate permits for drilling and infrastructure requirements-pipe lines, refineries, port facilities, etc.-provided that the producers adhere to a set of rational environmental regulations.

We should continue to pursue the renewable energy initiatives with the realization that:

80% of our energy consumption is used to power vehicles, and there is no viable cost-effective clean energy alternative on the horizon other than natural gas, and electricity (which requires a secondary energy source-natural gas, oil, coal or nuclear power-to generate in the quantities that would be required).

The other forms of renewable energy have limitations, are not likely to be cost-effective in the near term, and are decades away from implementation to make a dent in our energy requirements. We need a transition strategy to bridge the gap until the third industrial revolution-renewable energy-becomes a reality.

To assume leadership as a net exporter of energy, and to meet our clean energy needs, we require a dose of common sense applied to the environmental issues, and the leadership of Congress and the administration to make it a reality. Given the on/off situation with off shore drilling, fracture stimulation, and the Keystone pipeline, the application of common sense to the energy issue does not appear to be the order of the day in the nation's capitol. Instead, the politicos are mired in the cesspool of special interests groups-oil, automotive, alternative energy companies, farmers, ethanol producers, and environmentalist. As long as these special interest groups are willing to fund the coffers of our politicians, we will never have a rational energy policy. The administration has adeptly delayed the Keystone pipeline until after the 2012 elections, a blatant maneuver to curry favor with the special interest groups that are against the pipeline, ostensibly because the pipeline would contaminate the aquifer which supplies water to the region. The facts are that 25 billion barrels of oil have flown through the 25,000 miles of pipeline within the Ogallala aquifer - 2000 of which are located in Nebraska-with no catastrophic effect. The morally corrupt politicians have traded jobs for votes and campaign contributions. Is it any wonder the people are disenchanted with the government?

Energy, jobs, national debt, and our anemic growth rate are today's problems that must be addressed and solved today, if the country is to grow and prosper. The global warming issue is tomorrows' problem, which, if there is actually a problem, will be solved tomorrow. Running the world on cost-effective renewable energy is a dream that should be pursued, but not at the exclusion of other viable clean energy resources. Once or perhaps twice in a century there is a game changing opportunity to raise the country and its people to the next level The energy revolution provides the opportunity to jump start our economy, create jobs, become energy independent, solve our balance of payment imbalance, reduce the national debt, and stop importing oil from the Middle East. We have fought two wars for oil with a cost of trillions of dollars, and the loss of over 6,000 men and women. We are at the cusp of ceding our world leadership role because our so-called leadership is not willing to stand up to special interest groups and implement a rational energy policy that would revitalize the economy.

The special interest groups play a major role in stymieing the development and implementation of a rational energy policy. Our morally corrupt leadership has not risen to the task. Accordingly, the lone recourse left to the people is to demand a constitutional amendment that provides for a one-term limit-the president and Senate, six years, House, four years-with federally funded elections. The country would be better served if the Occupy Wall Street and Tea Party adherents move their protests to the fifty state capitals, and demand that the state legislators call a constitutional convention to propose and implement the 28th amendment- one term limit and federal funded elections. The 28th amendment should be a priority for both groups if we are to sever the symbiotic relations between politicians and the special interest groups that fund their campaigns. Only then will rationality and common sense prevail in the nation's capital.

"Throw the bums out"was the often heard refrain at Ebbets field in the 1930's/40's when the Brooklyn Dodgers fans were not satisfied with the performance of their team, a frequent occurrence in those years. Accordingly, it's appropriate that the performance of our so called "leaders" be treated with the same refrain.

*Title rights reserved

This is the fourth article in the Common Sense Revisited* series. The subject matter deals with the failures of our government-Congress and the several presidents that have guided the country over the past thirty five years. The views expressed are neither liberal nor conservative nor an attempt to impeach either political party. There are enough facts to suggest that all share in the debacle that has led this country to its current state. If there is a bias, it's expressed in these six words-a plague on all their houses!

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

JOHN CAVI is the author of The President's Ultimatum. The novel revolves around the Israeli Palestinian conflict, and presents a fictional account of what could happen if the United States stepped in with a bold challenge to settle the dispute. It's a thrilling tale of adventure, deception, betrayal, and redemption, interweaved with a poignant love story and political intrigue. It deals with a topic that still populates the headlines of the international news media.

The President's Ultimatum, was awarded the Editors Choice and Rising Star designations by iUniverse which signify excellence in writing. "Cavi delivers a thrilling novel which weaves national security, energy independence, terrorism and political turmoil into a hypothetical projection which hits eerily close to reality."

The prologue and a synopsis of the novel and blogs can be found on his website: http://www.johncavi.com

JOHN CAVI is the pen name of John Cavaiuolo-a retired Citicorp executive. He was born in Brooklyn, N.Y. and served in the U.S. Marine Corp from 1951-53. He is a graduate of St. Johns University, NYU, and the Harvard Business School Executive program. A former resident of Westport, Ct., he lives in Southport, Ct. with his wife, Ellen.

* All title rights reserved

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