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Showing posts with label Investing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Investing. Show all posts

Monday, August 27, 2012

Investing - Choosing Individual Savings Accounts


ISAs replaced PEPs and TESSAs for new investments after April 1999 and are guaranteed to run for ten years. The annual limit for investment is £7,000 (£5,000 from April 2006). Income and capital gains in an ISA are tax free and dividends receive a 10% tax credit until 2004.

Investments can be in three components:


up to £3,000 (£1,000 from April 2006) in a cash component in banks, building societies, National Savings products (the taxable ones of course);
up to £1,000 in an insurance component single premium life assurance policies such as with profits bonds;
up to the full £7,000 (£5,000) in stocks and shares investment or unit trusts, preference shares, bonds and gilts or directly in equities (a self select ISA). There are no geographical limits as there were for PEPs.

There is a question mark over the value of the insurance component because insurance linked products pay income tax (albeit at a favourable rate), which cannot be recovered and no more tax is payable on investments outside an ISA except for higher rate taxpayers.

Shares arising from employee share option schemes can be transferred to a stocks and shares ISA without counting against the annual limit.

Although 18 is the starting age for ISAs, 16 and 17 year olds can invest up to £3,000 (£1,000 from 2006) in a cash ISA.

There are three kinds of ISA:


Maxi ISAs - up to the full £7,000 (£5,000) is invested with one provider, although it can still be broken down into two or three components.
Mini ISAs - you can have one, two or three providers, one for cash, one for insurance and one for stocks and shares (but you cannot forgo either the cash or insurance mini ISA to put £4,000 in stocks and shares).
TESSA only ISAs when a TESSA expires, the capital element (but not the interest) can be re invested in a cash or TESSA only ISA without counting towards the annual ISA limit.

You cannot invest in both a maxi ISA and a mini ISA in the same year.

Income can be left in or withdrawn but once taken out neither income or capital can be put back into that year's ISA.

CAT standards exist for ISAs (charges, access, terms) to protect inexperienced investors but providers do not have to follow them.

Are they good value?

There has been some debate about the value of PEPs, particularly for standard rate taxpayers, since not many People pay capital gains tax and the extra charges could be greater than the income tax savings. However, this dates back to the time when PEPs could only be invested in equities. The same questions arise in connection with ISAs.

Statistics of returns over a period are only available for the time when PEPs were limited to equities. They show that equity investment through a PEP achieved a higher return although it took a lengthy period for the difference to be significant.

Corporate bond ISAs and PEPs

Now that ISAs and PEPs can be invested in company fixed interest stocks and shares, producing more income than equities at least to start with (as well as incurring less risk), there will be a tendency, particularly in the case of higher rate taxpayers, to use ISAs and PEPs in this way.

Another reason is that the full amount of tax deducted at source from company fixed interest stocks can be recovered by the ISA manager instead of the limited recovery of tax deducted from dividends.

Choosing an ISA

Even when you have decided on the type of ISA you wish to invest in, there is still a wide choice. Here are some questions to ask the ISA provider:


What are the initial/exit and annual charges and are they charged to income or capital?
What are the dealing costs (if applicable)?
What is the charge for transfer to another provider?
Is there any charge for switching between the provider's own funds?
Are there charges for collecting dividends, getting company reports and attending AGMs?

It is possible to have a self select share ISA in which you choose which shares or units to invest in and you can trade in the usual way (this also applies to PEPs). There is no specified limit as to how long you can hold cash - the criterion is an intention to invest.

Putting all your annual share ISA money into one unit or investment trust, while economical, can be somewhat risky, especially in the case of an ISA mortgage, but you can spread the risk by choosing a different investment sector for each ISA year.

Fund supermarkets are worth considering for ISAs.




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Monday, June 18, 2012

Real Estate Investing - Part II


1.The Buyer's Mantra became "Ready, Fire, Aim".

Restated: Buy any attractive property, and buy it quickly. The only perceived mistake was not getting involved in the feeding frenzy for good looking real estate.

Frankly, there was a lot of truth involved in that strategy in a run-away market.

The old and wise adage of "look before you leap" turned into "Ready, Fire, Aim"

Offer quickly or lose the opportunity to buy.
Once you have it under contract, there will be plenty of time to decide if you really wanted the property.
If you didn't like what you had roped, you could cut it loose to another investor who was waiting in line to buy it. Or, hold for a very short period and flip it for a profit.

Real estate brokers became familiar with the buying game.

If three qualified buyers bid on an available property, there was the buyer would was able to get an accepted offer... he or she was referred to as "The Winner".
The person who came in second was referred to as "First Loser", and the third buyer as "Second Loser"
You only won as a "Winner". Loser" didn't count.

2.The Buyer's Mantra became "Debt is Your Friend... borrow as much as possible.

The Logic: If you could come in with say 10% down and the property appreciated at 20% per annum, then you had a 200% equity rate of return from appreciation only.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

The following notable changes have happened that have changed the tried and true Real Estate Investment Model

1.A national and world-wide recession that has continued to deepen at an alarming rate.

2.The US Congress led by President Obama has tried all kinds of stimulus efforts to correct the economic downturn.

Most of the visible efforts involved throwing previously unimaginable amount of money at the banking industry... unfortunately with no visible results of correcting the primary element that will cure the recession... employment.
The National Debt has increased greatly in recent months.
Someone in the future will have to shoulder the burden of dealing with and reducing that debt.
Hope that you don't live long enough for your grandkids to understand exactly what we have allowed to happen. We have mortgaged their future.
Big Moral Question: Maybe we owe it to our heirs to accumulate enough wealth to pass to them so they have a running chance at dealing with the situation. Give them "enough to assist them, but not enough to ruin them" with the concept of "entitlement to wealth".

3.Unemployment rates continue to rise.

Consequence on the Real Estate Market:
Unemployed people soon lack the financial ability to pay rent or make their mortgage payment.
Increasing mortgage defaults mean increasing short sales or foreclosures for those who were not lucky enough to have sold prior to our current "short sale and foreclosure ridden market".

4.Property values are spiraling downward in the face of competition by low priced short sales and lender resales of properties that they foreclosed upon.

If you are looking to sell or refinance, then a real estate appraiser will be required by the lender who would make the new loan
As always, real estate appraisers are required to use the most recent sales that have occurred in the market
However, a number of the recent sales are short sales or resales of bank-owned property. One low sale influences future sales in the eyes of the lender. The lender is looking for Market Value today as well as the current value trend of the market.
This adverse impact of short sales and foreclosure sales will continue until the bank-owned properties have mostly all been sold.

5.There is a clear and obvious federal move from capitalism toward socialism.

The move toward much stronger federal regulation of all financial activities is one that causes great uncertainty concerning important financial relationships.
The federal government takeovers of General Motors and increasing control of the banking industry causes concerns that additional regulation and new governmental agencies could substantially alter the business models that have caused past stability and long term economic trends.
The recent success of a nationalized health care program is positive in concept. How can you argue that people should not have some minimum level of health insurance? That would seem un-American! However, the question remains: "At What Cost?" The cost of the plan stacked upon the financial failures of this recession will cause further stress on a system that is bulging at the seams to hold things together.
My friends in the insurance industry appear to be next for strong federal regulation. Anytime the government starts to dictate the "actuarial" statistics, something very strange is about to happen.
Who Will Pay The Bill? Guess what? You will be fine....SO LONG AS YOU DON'T MAKE "TOO MUCH" MONEY!

6.Interest rates have been maintained at very low levels. This is highly unusual in a recessive economic environment.

The recession of 1980 - 1984 was led by increasing interest rates. First mortgage price hit 21% during the heart of that recession.
Very low interest rates and the availability of mortgage funding so far has characterized the current recession. This is very unusual.
The recession of 1980-85 had first mortgage prime at 21%. You really needed to borrow money if you agreed to borrow it at that rate.
It was high interest rates that led to the recession of 1980-85.

7.A mantra of "tax the rich" is heard at the federal level and at the state of Oregon level. Oregon is known for being one of the "Top 10 Most Taxed State in the Nation".

This is a dangerous theme. New employment is required to lead us out of the recession. Oregon has lost much of its appeal to those companies who could help the quickest. Small business is the major source of jobs that will create local stability. However, a number of small businesses failed in 2008 and 2009.
Interesting Issue: People with money have the capacity to maneuver their money to avoid taxation. The big problem with "soak the rich" is that sooner or later you run out of "rich companies" and "rich people" to tax. Then what do we do?

WHAT IS THE CURRENT REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT?

- or -

WHAT DO WE HAVE TO WORK WITH?

Put the above in a blender and put it on "whirl" for about 30 seconds. Then, pour it out and evaluate what we have to work with.

1.Cheap Mortgage Money: At this time, there is an availability of "cheap" mortgage money for:

Those who can afford to make a 30% to 40% down (depending upon the property type) and as little as 25% down on other asset types.
Contact me for some hints of some that I have discovered.

2.Increasing Debt Coverage Ratios: The lender's Debt Coverage Ratio ("DCR") has replaced the Loan to Value Ratio ("LVR") as the standard for gauging maximum loan amount for income producing properties.

Range of DCR: As the recession started to develop, the DCR was increased from 1.10 to 1.25 and 1.30.
Restated: The amount of a new loan has been reduced rather substantially as the recession continued to progress.

How the DCR Works:

Start with the Net Operating Income of the property and divide it by the Debt Coverage Ratio. This will define the maximum allowed annual principal and interest (P&I) payment.
Next, divide that by 12 to identify the maximum allowed monthly P&I payment.
Using a "present value" calculator, input that maximum monthly P&I payment in with the lender's allowed loan amortization term and the lender's required interest rate.
The result is the maximum amount of loan that the lender will permit on that property using that DCR.

3. Uncertainty of the tenant's ability to pay rent.

Here is where the real estate market has been shaken to the core.

Retail: A number of national credit tenants (Linen & Things, etc. etc,) have failed during the recession.
Past Observation: The retail triple net lease has been valued highly on the pecking order of desirable "institutional quality" investments. Cap rates were relatively low to reflect the low risk faced with national credit tenants.
The Problem: As some of the "big names" started to fold, the risk rating sky rockets. It would be logical that the cap rates would also increase to recognize that increased risk
Conclusion: The retail triple net credit tenant lease has started to pick up a bad name. Flip on the Red Stop Light.

Commercial Office: An interesting observation has been made about office tenants. They are starting to contract in amount of space needed. They are also attempting to renegotiate their leases for lower rents. Several of my commercial broker friends are starting to make a special practice in serving tenants as they negotiate against their landlord,

Commercial Medical: I have had several conversations with skilled doctors concerning the potential impact upon their career and their ability to generate income. They have expressed a deep concern about their continued ability to make good money.

Some might say that they earn too much to begin with. Maybe so, but if they have less income, then they can't pay as much rent for leased medical space. Medical building landlords... are you listening.
Lower rents would mean lower values for leased medical buildings

Residential Income: You have heard the adage... "Everyone needs a place to live". That is true, but watch the "trickle down effect" take an interesting gyration during a heavy recession.

Vacancy factors has started to increase.
However, in the Eugene-Springfield apartment market, the vacancy factor has increased from about 2% to about 4%. That is a rate that can very well be tolerated.
My friend Brian Miles, CCIM of SMI Commercial Real Estate in Salem has observed that vacancy factors for apartment units has doubled over the past six months in the greater Salem apartment market.
The commercial appraisers who appraise apartments are the best source of current vacancy rate and rent level information.
The problem is there are few that are generating published vacancy and rent reports any more. Rick Duncan MAI and owner of Duncan Brown Appraisers in Eugene stated that he grew tired of his competition using his reports in their appraisal reports.
Rick Duncan and several of the larger apartment complex property managers are the best source for vacancy factors in the Eugene-Springfield area. Rick is my "go to" guy when I need to get a quick and accurate temperature check of the apartment market in the Eugene-Springfield area.

My Caveat To You

Concerning "Real Estate Market Information"

Be very cautious when accepting information as "fact" concerning the "real estate market".

The "real estate market" consists of a number of localized sub-markets based upon:

1.Type of property

2.Type of tenant;

3.Location; and,

4.Quality of the information source.

Often I real articles in the local newspaper claiming that "real estate is a total train wreck". Then check the source. It is an article written in very generic terms about the "housing market" is some region far form the I-5 Corridor between The California border and the Canadian Border.

My Observation Concerning the I-5 Corridor (Oregon and Washington): to date

1.Property values for most types of tenant occupied real estate have held up rather nicely compared to other parts of the nation.

2. Mortgage funding is available to those qualified to purchase.

3. Occupancy levels are showing strains of a recession, but this is where the product types would be anticipated to have recessive problems




Bob Nelson, CCIM
The 1031 Guru
41 years of commercial - investment brokerage expertise
(541) 485-8100
bob@1031guru.com
http://www.1031guru.com




Friday, May 4, 2012

Investing In A Developing Economy - A Possible Solution To Global Financial Crisis


INTRODUCTION

If there were security problems in Nigeria, no businessman would go to the country to explore opportunities, companies like Celtel, MTN, Etisalat, would not have ventured into security risk country to do business. Those who spread rumour about security and corruption problems in Nigeria are saying so to stop others from making money in the country. Figures don't lie. They are the biggest testimonies for how conducive Nigeria's environment for business and opportunities are. If you want to do business in Africa and record good returns on your investment, I welcome you to come to Nigeria. The political environment in Africa, particularly in Nigeria is tremendous.

Dr. Hamadoun Toure,

Secretary General,

International Telecommunications Union,

Cited in the Punch Newspaper, May 13, 2008)

What is happening currently with the Nigerian financial system is far from being affected in any way by the global credit crisis. At global level currently, the banks are under-capitalised, but Nigerian banks are over-capitalised. And I do not think this is a problem at all. I believe that Nigerian banks are under pressure from other economies within Africa continent that are affected by the credit challenges.

- Gordon Smith,

Head of Research, Africa and the Middle East, International Consilium,

(Reported in the Punch Newspaper, June 30th, 2008).

The foregoing statements aptly connote two understandings of the state of Nigerian economy. These understandings show that, the economy is one of the fastest growing economies in Africa and in the world. Although Nigeria has had hash economic history, it has undergone and still undergoing economic reforms, which are aimed at making Nigeria the Africa's financial hub and one of the twenty largest economies in the world by the year 2020. Needless to say that the country has experienced political instability, corruption, and poor macroeconomic management in the past, this was responsible for unpleasant and harsh economic situation. The government relentless efforts to reposition the economy have translated into a remarkable economic growth and development. Several mechanisms have been put in place to sustain this growth and development, capable of balancing the interests of stakeholders. Perhaps, this view must have influenced Gordon Smith submission. He described Nigeria as the most dynamic market in Africa, which is under severe pressure from some countries in Africa to serve as a cushion against the effects of global turbulence. He also noted that some countries like Ghana, Malawi, Mauritius, among others were depending on her at the moment due to global risk exposure and that the country's economy, led by the consolidated banks, was far from being affected by the global credit crisis currently rocking the world's financial giants. He stressed further that foreign investors, who will be patient enough to weigh the Nigerian financial system on the credit risk perspective relative to global events, will find the nation's financial sector more interesting to invest and raise capital from.

Faced with numerous challenges, Nigerian government is determined to strengthen, diversify and make the economy attractive and investment-friendly to both local and foreign investors. The government has adopted total liberalization and globalization as the economic policy, instituted privatization and commercialization programmes of public enterprises, provided total security for business and people, extended invitation to domestic and foreign investors, abolished laws inhibiting competition, embraced and fine-tuned policies to ensure quick realization of growth and development of all sectors of the economy. The effort is already paying off as Nigeria is now the focus for foreign investment thereby increased exponentially Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Scores of economic missions and delegations from developed and developing countries have visited Nigeria, thus accelerating the growth of the economy at a very fast rate.

It becomes pertinent to direct the course of this discussion to embrace the second understanding of the above statements made by Hamadoun Toure and Gordon Smith. However, it becomes more pertinent to enumerate the inherent investment opportunities in Nigerian economy before discussing the issue of security as raised by Toure.

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND SECURITY ISSUE IN NIGERIA

No doubt, Nigeria is an investment haven with countless and lucrative investment opportunities including oil and gas, solid mineral, agriculture, tourism, telecommunication, power and steel, transport, trade processing zone, financial sector, real estate / property, manufacturing, sport and entertainment, and fashion industry. Investors have a wide range of opportunities to choose from. It is important to note that the rate of growth of investment is fantastic and exponential in any of these sectors. Investors are at advantage of presenting their products and services to already-made market taking advantage of the population of over 140 million.

In telecommunication, statistics reveals that mobile phone users in Africa were about 280 million, overtaking United States and Canada with their 277 million users in the opening quarter of 2008. With 70 million connections in 2007, the Continent became the fastest growing region in the world, representing a growth of 38 per cent, ahead of the Middle-East (33 per cent) and the Asia-Pacific (29 per cent).It was also revealed that the fastest growing markets are located in northern and western Africa, representing altogether 63 per cent of the total connections in the region. The record showed that Nigeria, Zambia, Tanzania, The Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Algeria, Tunisia, Ghana and South Africa are highly competitive markets in the Region. The record further contends that two-third of Africa's telephony are in their early phase of development, with penetration rates below 30 per cent at the end of 2007.In percentage terms, it was noted that Africa is the fastest growing market in the world, but also the second smallest in terms of connections after Middle-East.

As Nigeria accounts for 57 per cent of the West Africa mobile phones, the country is acknowledged as the leading and the fastest growing telecom market in Africa. With mobile phone users at 44,932,181 and 734,444 for GSM and mobile CDMA respectively, her contributions to West Africa and Africa's telecommunication growth can not be overemphasized. While the overall economic growth rate stands at 7% per annum, the mobile telephony is about 35-50%. Assuming that each of these connections was busy for a minute in a day, the country telecoms market has the capacity to generate over USD 16 million per day (USD16, 666,667) and close to USD 6 billion per year (USD 5,833,333,300). This is why telecom companies such as Visafone and Etisalat quickly joined the likes of MTN, Globacom, Celtel and other telecoms service providers in exploiting opportunities in the country.

Early this year, one of the main GSM service providers with a subscriber base of over 15 million announced a profit after taxation of USD650 million (78 billion naira) for the year 2007.Putting all these together, one can easily understand Toure's submission describing Nigerian telecoms market as the best investment destination in Africa.

Recognizing the fact that the Nigeria telecoms industry is enormous and there is need to further exploit the sector to its fullest, the Nigeria Communication Commission (NCC) and the Ministry of State for Information and Communications have made their positions clear by extending invitation to global investors for active participation in the sector as they are willing to grant pioneer status and license for prospective applicants for various undertaking such as Fixed telephony, Mobile telephony, Fixed satellite (VSAT),Paging, Payphone, Internet and other value added services.

With the above facts, one can safely conclude that Nigerian telecom sector offers fantastic and lucrative investment opportunities to global investors. And putting into consideration 40% GSM market growth rate in the first quarter of this year (2008), there is potential for high return on investment in this sector.

Agriculture, the dominant sector of Nigeria economy, engages about 70 per cent of the population directly and provides nearly 88 percent of non-oil foreign exchange earnings. It contributes about 41 per cent of the GDP of the country. The sector recorded an overall growth rate average of 7 per cent in the last three years, a major improvement from under 3 per cent in the 90's.

Statistically, 91 million hectares of the country's total land area of 92.4 million hectares is adjudged to be suitable for cultivation. Approximately half of this cultivable land is effectively under permanent and arable crops, while the rest is covered by forest wood land, permanent pasture and built up areas. Among the states, which have the most abundant land, areas are Niger (7.6 million hectares) and Borno (2.8 million hectares).

Agriculture crops in Nigeria are grouped into cereals, root and tuber crops, grains legumes and other legumes, oil seeds and nuts, tree crops, and vegetable and fruits. Governments and the Ministries of Agriculture have made land acquisition easy, encouraged agricultural practices, extended (still extending) invitation to foreign investors and have put in place several incentives to stimulate growth in the sector. Despite, the agricultural potential of Nigeria is barely being tapped and this explains the inability of the country to meet the ever-increasing demand for agricultural products and her rank as 55th in the world (although first in Africa) in farm output.

As the world experiences food crisis and persistent rise in fuel price, the country's agriculture offers unlimited opportunities for foreign investors and the world at large to provide solutions to these crises. Foreign investors will find investments in cultivation of sugar cane, sugar beet, sweet sorghum, starch (corn/maize), palm oil, soybeans, jatropha, and algae. These products are lucrative as they are potential for biofuels, a good substitute for fossil fuel. Presently, there is a very high demand for these crops from the developed economies.

Solid Mineral is another sector with great investment opportunities. Nigeria is endowed with numerous mineral resources. Recent policy reforms have brought the solid minerals sector to the fore. The emphasis is on encouraging massive foreign investors' participation in this sector as less than 0.5 per cent is contributed to the Gross Domestic Products from Solid mineral sector. However, the Ministry of Mines and Steel and the Ministry of state's focal attention in the last one year is to strategically place the country in a better position to explore and exploit just seven minerals in the plethora of minerals so as to increase Gross Domestic Product to 5 per cent within the next few years. The seven strategic minerals are coal, bitumen, limestone, iron-ore, barite, gold and lead / zinc.

Coal can be found in Enugu, Benue and Kogi. Within these three districts 396 million metric tones can be demonstrated using JORC classification criteria, while an additional 1,091 million tones of inferred and hypothetical coal resourced for the areas studied is 1481 million tones.

Knowing fully that development of coal will assist in the realization of energy, the Government and the Ministries are inviting foreign investors to participate actively in the exploration and exploitation of the mineral. Companies such as Denver Resources and Western Metals have already committed US$10 million and US$15 million respectively for two coal fields in the country. Another Chinese firm, Grid Xin Yuan International Investment Company that is providing more than half of China's electricity needs is also in the country, indicating their interest in the development of a coal field in Kogi State.

The Bitumen reserve in the country is estimated at more than 27 billion barrels of oil equivalent while iron-ore is estimated at over 5 billion inferred reserves with presence in Kogi, Enugu, Niger, Zamfara and Kaduna States. Gold in just 10 locations is estimated at 50,000 ounces, barites 10 million metric tones and limestone at 2.3 trillion reserves.

Talc with an estimated reserve of over 100 million tones can be found in Niger, Osun, Kogi, Kwara, Ogun, Taraba and Kaduna States.The colour of the Nigerian talc varies from white through milky-white to grey. The talc industry represents one of the most versatile sectors of the industrial minerals in the world. The exploitation of the vast talc deposits in Nigeria would therefore satisfy not only the local demands but also that of the international market as well.

The national demand for table salt, caustic soda, chlorine, sodium bicarbonate, sodium hydrochloric acid and hydrogen peroxide exceeds one million tones. A colossal amount of money is expended annually to import these chemicals. There are salt springs at Awe (Platue State), Enugu, and Uburu ( Imo State), while rock salt is available in Benue State. A total reserve of 1.5 billion tones has been indicated. Government, to ascertain the quantum of reserves, is now carrying out further investigations.

In the same vain, large bentonite reserves of 700 million tones are available in many states of federation ready for massive development and exploitation, over 7.5 million tones of barite been identified in Taraba and Bauchi states, and an estimated reserve of 3 billion tones of good kaolinific clays has also been identified.

Gemstone mining has boomed in various parts of Plateau, Kaduna and Bauchi States for years. Some of these gemstones include Sapphire, Ruby, Aquamarine, Emerald, Tourmaline, Topaz, Gamet, Amethyst, Zircon, and Fluorspar, which are among the best in world. Good prospects exist in this area for viable investment. Understanding that this sector requires urgent investment, the Ministry has directed miners who are still in small artisan levels to form cooperatives so as to benefit from World Bank US$10 million assistance. Apart from this, three Nigerian Banks have also established solid minerals desk with fund of over US$ 8 million each for the development of the sector.

Foreign investors will find this sector worth-investing on as Nigerian governments have put in place various incentives and strategies for investment such as 3-5 years tax holiday, deferred royalty payments, possible capitalization of expenditure on exploration and surveys, extension of infrastructure and provision of 100% foreign ownership of mining concerns.

Recognizing that only a sustained macroeconomic environment and a sound and vibrant financial system can propel the economy to achieve the country's desire to become one of 20 largest economies in the world by the year 2020, on the July 6, 2004 the Federal Government through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), under the leadership of its Governor, Professor Charles Soludo launched a 13-point reform agenda to restructure, refocus and strengthen the Nigerian Financial System. To complement this agenda, another comprehensive long-term reform agenda for the Financial System (the Financial System Strategy 2020-FSS2020) was launched. The grand objectives of these agendas are substantially being achieved. The country financial system now comprises of strong, efficient and internationally competitive banks with an eye for global markets, a capital market with highest returns on investment, in dollar terms, a sound and rewarding insurance industry and other competitive financial participants.

Gordon was right in his submission to have described Nigeria as the most dynamic market in Africa. His view that "foreign investors, who will be patient enough to weigh the Nigerian Financial System on the credit risk perspective relative to the global event, will find the nation's financial sector more interesting to invest and raise funds from" x-rays the truth about the country's financial sector.

The country's banking system is the safest and the soundest it has ever produced in history. It is the fastest growing banking system in Africa and one of the fastest in the world. In fact, the most outstanding contribution towards realization of the country's dream came from this sub-sector. Economic analysts have observed that it has taken Nigeria less than 3 years to achieve what it took South Africa 20 years to achieve in the area of banking. In a short word, a world-class banking system has emerged in Nigeria.

Statistically, banking sector contributes 10 per cent to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and represents 60 per cent of the stock market capitalization, while there was a reduction in the number of banks from 89 to 25, the number of banks branches rose by 33 per cent from 3383 in 2004 to 4500 in 2007. The total asset base of banks rose by 104 per cent from $ 26.8 billions ( 3.21 trillion naira) in 2004 to $54.7 billion ( 6.56 trillion naira) by mid 2007; capital and reserves rose by 192 per cent from $2.72 billion (327 billion naira) to $7.98 billion ( 957 billion naira); capital adequacy ratio rose by 42.6 per cent, point from 15.18 per cent to 21.6 per cent and ratio of non-performing loans total loan improved massively by 51.3 per cent, point from 19.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent. The sector has also remained one of the most profitable in the country's capital market. It was noted that 13 out of 21 quoted banks on the Nigerian Stock Exchange recorded returns in excess of 100 per cent since January 2007.

According to the April 2008 edition of the African Business, (the best-selling Pan-African Business Magazine published in London) 18 out of 28 West African Companies with market capitalisation of more than $1 billion are Nigerian Banks. The magazine stated that First Bank Nigeria Plc with market capitalization of $7.4 billion remains the largest company in West Africa. Two other Nigerian banks namely Intercontinental Bank Plc and United Bank for Africa (UBA) remain the second and the third largest companies in the sub-region with market capitalization of $6.2 billion and $4.6 billion respectively.

Apparently, the rising tide of banks in the country from all indications has made the sub-sector very attractive, not only to local investors, but also to foreign investors, and in particular, foreign banks. For instance, the consolidation of Regent Bank, Chartered Bank and IBTC to form IBTC Chartered Bank attracted the interest of the Standard Bank Group, the largest financial institution in Africa with a market capitalization of $ 17.8 billion, whose subsidiary Stanbic Bank, also of South Africa has just sealed a Merger deal for the latest Merger in the country, Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc. In this direction, other foreign banks have started making enquiries with CBN of a possible Merger or take-over.

To further substantiate the opportunities the banking sub-sector offers the global investors, a cursory look into Intercontinental Bank Plc will reveal the success of banking system in the country. Intercontinental Bank Plc is known to be the second largest companies in West Africa to have recorded a phenomenal growth in gross earnings, which stood at $1.45 billion ( 173.5 billion naira) in 2008. This is an increase of 99 per cent over the $728 million (87.4 billion naira) in 2007, profit after tax grew by 102 per cent to $380 million ( 45.6 billion naira) as against $188 million (22.6 billion) in 2007, while the capital base rose to $1.67 billion from $1.31 billion. The bank deposit base soared to $8.75 billion ( 1.05 trillion naira), an increase of 126 per cent from $3.9 billion (468 billion naira) in 2007, while the total assets also recorded a quantum leap to $14.2 billion (1.7 trillion naira), representing a growth of 108 per cent from $6.86 billion( 823 billion).

The bank is also in strategic partnership with BNP Paribas, the world leading energy financing bank, Afrexim Bank; Export Development Canada (EDC); Finance for Development (FMO); China Exim Bank; Export-Import of United States; International Finance Corporation in financing projects in different sectors of the economy. However, it is relevant to say that the success recorded by Intercontinental bank is a good example of the Nigerian banks' strength and prospects, and a testimony to opportunities available to global investors in the country' financial sector.

Apart from the above, Nigerian Capital Market offers viable opportunities as it is positioned to help companies to raise capital, and to generate high returns on investment. Its total market capitalization has grown by over 4000 per cent to $100 billion (12 trillion naira) in March, 2008, up from $2.39 billion (287 billion naira ) in August 1999.Among emerging markets, the Nigerian Capital market remains one of the most viable in terms of returns on equity. Historically, the market has delivered 28 per cent returns.

Insurance industry is not an exemption to this growth and development the country's financial sector is witnessing. Although there are few black spots on the regulatory handling, the industry has equally recorded success in their reforms and operations. With the inflow of robust capital, insurance companies are now faced with the challenges of delivering returns to shareholders, maximizing value and exploring overseas markets. Their presence can be felt in countries like Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Sao Tome, South Africa among others.

Although Goldman Sachs' report titled "New Market Analyst" with issue number 08/09 released on March 13, 2008 (cited in the Thisday newspaper March 19,2008) posited that Nigeria is a better economy than South Africa, International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that Nigeria and South Africa got close to 50 per cent of the $53 billion private equity and debt flow to Sub-Saharan Africa in 2007. This underscores the growing confidence of International bodies and foreign investors in country's financial sector and economy at large.

Furthermore, Fitch Rating Agency and the Standard and Poor rated Nigeria BB-(minus) in the area of sovereign credit, high in development of local currency debt market, and low in the areas of debt to GDP ratio and inflation. The opportunities for growth in Nigeria financial sector are still strong as the underlying fundamentals driving the growth are still present. All these and more, position the financial sector and the country at large as a leading and most dynamic market in Africa and present viable investment opportunities to global investors.

Needless to say that the opportunities presented above are typical examples and an evidence of opportunities awaiting foreign investors in other sectors of the economy.

Nigeria is the largest producer and exporter of oil in Africa (although recently placed second behind Angola in the latest OPEC report as a result of Niger Delta Crisis) with a production of 2.5 million barrels and above a day. Besides, the Nigeria is the 7th world's gas reserve holder and the highest flaring nation in the world, with the potential to become a major player in LNG export. It has annual gas flares' capacity to generate over 12000 MW of electricity needed to catalyze the growth of any economy. Although it currently flares an average of 1.2 TCF of gas annually, the sector has the potential to generate great returns on investment.

One of the greatest opportunities awaiting foreign investors is Real Estate / Property. For instance, Lagos Metropolis with a population of about 18 million has attained mega city status. The State has one of the highest urbanization rates in the world according to the World Bank. Consequently, there is an insatiable demand for housing delivery, which has necessitated the introduction of the New Private Estate Developers Scheme. Under the programme, the government will make large parcels of land ranging from 1 to 25 hectares available to corporate organizations capable of undertaking development and delivery of housing units. Such organization must however demonstrate that they have the financial capacity and technical expertise to deliver quality and affordable housing units.

Among other sectors of the economy that foreign investors will find viable and worth-investing on are Transport, Sport and Entertainment, Tourism, Power and Steel, Export Processing Zones, Privatization. And available records reveal that the rate of returns in these sectors is as high as in the sectors discussed above.

Apart from the opportunities mentioned above which our office is strategically positioned to maximize opportunities for the benefit of prospective investors. We also offer consultancy services in the areas of general management, manufacturing, marketing, finance and accounting, personnel, research and development, packaging, administration, international operation, specialized services and other value-adding services. And our strategic partnership with national and international companies put us in position to deliver quality service and high returns on investment.

Nevertheless, there have been fears raised by international observers, agents and bodies that Nigeria is a high-risk nation for investment and other business transactions. This development is attributed to security, multiple taxation, epileptic power supply, bad roads and poor work environment.

It may appear that doing business in Nigeria is challenging because of the activities of a few untrustworthy Nigerians who are unscrupulous. But such are simply characterization of human nature; as it can be found anywhere else in the world. It must be said emphatically that the world has been biased in their judgment and treatment of Nigeria security issue. There have never been terrorist attacks, suicide bombings or kidnapping until recently when the issue of Niger Delta came on board.

Niger Delta region-the source of nation's oil wealth- has become an area of perennial tension, agitation, and recently, militancy. However, a confluence of factors such as environmental damage by oil exploitation, failure to develop the region, lack of job opportunities and sense of deep deprivation from the low share of derivation revenue accruing to the states in the region, has led to the present situation. Acknowledging their situation, the Federal Government has organised a Summit, to be chaired by Professor Ibrahim Gambari, the United Nations Under Secretary General, to provide everlasting solution to the crisis. Frankly speaking, Nigeria is a safe and investment-friendly place and Nigerians are accommodating and industrious.

Cyber Crime is another fearsome crime, which often put-off prospective investors from involving or investing in the business opportunities in Nigeria. This crime was actually imported into the country by expatriates. It has never been part of Nigeria culture. It is perpetrated by a few section of the population. Their operations are carried out via Internet and their targets are people who transact business via the medium. They pose as government officials and sometimes as businessmen with United Kingdom identity who deal in digital products. However the list of their tricks and operations is not exhaustive. With the help of Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC), Independent Corrupt Practices and Related Commission (ICPC), and other Anti-Criminal Agencies, Cyber Crime and their perpetrators are under control and disappearing.

The grand objective of the present administration, as encapsulated in VISION 2020, is to make Nigeria a major industrial and economic power, and one of the 20 largest economies in the World by the year 2020 by providing enabling investment and business environment and maximum security for active participation of local and particularly, foreign investors. The realization of these aspirations had informed the radical and pragmatic reforms designed to increase the attractiveness of Nigeria's investment opportunities and foster the growing confidence in the economy. In this direction, the Federal Government has provided incentives and strategies for investment such as 3-5 years tax holiday, deferred royalty, possible capitalization of expenditure and provision of infrastructures such as road and electricity, just to mention a few.

African economy is witnessing the strongest growth in 30 years; no doubt, Nigeria is one of the major contributors to this development. Most commentators have observed that the opportunities for business and investment in the country look increasingly rosy with GDP growth of 7 per cent in 2007 and 13 per cent in the next 12 years. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast of 9 per cent growth rate for Nigeria in 2008 (which is second to India 10 per cent and ahead of China 8 per cent) lays credence to their observations.

Furthermore, the increase in Foreign Direct Investment, the entrance of multinational companies, the strong financial sector, the favourable and tremendous business environment, the government support, the abundant natural resources, and the population of over 140 million people, among others, put Nigeria in a comparative ( and possibly absolute) advantage over other African countries.

Just as it is difficult to ignore China as a market in the global arena, (one out of every five persons in the world is Chinese) so is it very difficult to ignore Nigeria as a market in Africa (one out of every three persons in Africa is Nigerian). With a population of over 140 million people and its economic potential, Nigeria still remains Africa most important market.

IMPACT OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS IN A DEVELOPING ECONOMY

Unlike China and India, African economy(developing economies) is yet to be integrated into the world economy. This is as a result of slow rate of integration and globalization at which the economy is being fixed into the global economic and financial system. Consequently, developing economies will only suffer a limited financial impact from the credit crunch. However, this is not to say that developing economies are in isolation and totally free from the crisis.

To grant a point, this paper will continue to use Nigerian economy for its analysis as it represents a paradigm of a developing economy with valid and considerable variables.

According to the report from a recently concluded Bankers Committee Meeting, which ended on October 20 th, 2008 , the Nigerian banks are safe as they operate at 22 per cent capital adequacy ratio( 14 per cent above the world 8 per cent requirement) and the financial sector is far from being affected by the current global financial crisis. The report also posits that any bail-out scheme is unnecessary as the situation that warranted bail-out schemes in developed economies- poor quality assets and heavy loan losses resulting from exposure to inadequately collateralised mortgage loans- is absent in Nigeria. To underscore its point, the report noted that, as the Direct Foreign Investment in Nigerian banks is comparatively low and the banks connection with their foreign counterparts is loosely fixed, the impact of the crisis will be limited and indirect.

Conclusion

The words of Mr. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the Managing Director of International Monetary Fund, at a meeting in Washington D.C are the corner stones of the concluding thoughts of this paper. He stressed as follow:

We meet at an extra-ordinarily difficult time- a time of uncertainty and insecurity, with a danger that those fears push us away from- not towards- a more inclusive and sustainable globalization....At its best, multilateralism is a means for solving problems among countries, with the group at the table willing to take constructive action together. When multilateralism is dysfunctional, globalization can be a Babel of Tower, with competing national interests colliding to benefit none. The new multilateralism, suiting our times, is likely to be a flexible network, not fixed system. It needs to maximize the strengths of interconnecting actors, public and private, profit-making and civil society Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs). The multilateralism must respect state sovereignties while solving interconnected problems that transcend borders...The private sector cannot restore confidence on its own. Macroeconomic policy measures by governments cannot restore confidence on their own. Piecemeal measures on financial markets will not restore confidence on their own. What will restore confidence is government intervention which is clear, comprehensive and cooperative among countries..The world must act quickly, forcefully and cooperatively to contain the ongoing financial and economic downturn.

Thus, the position of this paper is that the confidence will only be restored if "government intervention which is clear, comprehensive and cooperative" is complemented with investment in developing economies with less or no crisis impact as "flexible multilateralism" and cooperative and sustainable globalization is solution that suits our time, not" economic isolationism".




Azeez Olawale-Arish Yusuff,
Speaker, Human Right Advocate, Tutor, Entrepreneur, International consultant,Economic analyst, Founder/Manager, Cyber Crime Solution Providers Network.




Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Molybdenum Mining Investing? Check with Locals, Natives First


We interviewed Adanac Molybdenum executive chairman Larry Reaugh about the dozens of junior resource companies, which now proclaim they are part of the Molybdenum Bull Market. His company appears as a potential molybdenum producer on the horizon.

Since the beginning of this year, Reaugh's company has been riding the 'moly wave.' Institutions and investors are climbing aboard as greater interest emerges in the silvery-white metal, which adds both hardness and anti-corrosive properties to everything from energy pipelines and nuclear power plant condensers to desalination plants, automotive parts and air pollution systems for coal-fired power plants.

We posed five questions to Larry Reaugh to help separate the hype from the reality of the current molybdenum mania.

StockInterview: Of all the molybdenum companies out there, how do you know which are going to become economic?

Larry Reaugh: You can really only tell once the bankable feasibility is done. The bankable really narrows down the resource itself into a reserve and that can change. It's the only thing that can tell you with any assurance that a project can move ahead and make money. You should be able to take it to the bank, and they should finance you to go into production.

StockInterview: Please explain the timeline and the process to move a moly project from the resource stage all the way through the bankable feasibility and permitting stages.

Larry Reaugh: By the time you get to the resource stage, you should already have your baseline study and your environmental permitting started. You should have already made contact with all the various levels of government and stakeholders in the area to hire a qualified engineering firm - one that has impeccable credentials to do the pre-feasibility. And also apply for your mining lease at that time. Once the pre-feasibility is done, that gives you 30 to 40 percent certainty on the project. You take the results from those and then decide to move right into the feasibility of those if it's at all positive. Eventually when you get into the bankable feasibility, then you have another 10 to 20 percent assurance that the project will bear fruit at the end of the day. A bankable feasibility gives you reserves. Once you get reserves, you can actually put a dollar number value to it. That gives you enough of a grounding to it in which to do the detailed mining That includes the mining plans for your piping, your water, your foundation layouts, your site plans. Every Nth degree of construction that's going to take place in that plant has to be put on paper. That's about a 13-month project and will cost you up to C$15 million. So, now you move it through the environmental stage. That can take up to 3.5 years.

StockInterview: Many mining projects around the world get stalled because of bad relationships with the native inhabitants. Please tell us about Adanac's relationship with the First Nation of Canada.

Larry Reaugh: If you don't have a good transparent relationship with the natives and the locals, and you don't include them all the way through, you are not going to have ease of getting your social, economic and environmental permits done. When we got involved up there, the first thing that we did was contact the local band in the area. We met with the consul, basically gave them our plans. They brought in their consultants, and as each problem came up, we worked our way through it. They became a big part of working through to the solution. They know that there's an impact benefits agreement that we will be negotiating over the next couple of months. Socially, this is a big economic boost for everybody in the area. If you can help them to raise their industry awareness in having off-spins from that mine - other industries that they can develop, then you are doing a good job of being a good corporate citizen, not just to the native groups but also to the entire area. If you don't think that way, then you are going to have problems before you get going.

StockInterview: What steps will you have to take to begin production after you get your mining permits?

Larry Reaugh: Once the environmental permits are in, it'll be construction. That will take about 18 months. That will be right from the ground up - from breaking the soil to laying the foundations to pre-stripping the pit to laying down the tailings pond and the waste dump site.

StockInterview: The molybdenum mining market is robust right now. Why should investors consider Adanac as opposed to other moly companies?

Larry Reaugh: If you go to our site, you will see that the bankable feasibility is calling for a three-year payback on a C$450 million investment. We believe that that is obtainable. The project is way ahead of its peers. I don't think there's anybody else that's breaking ground this summer on a project of this size. Here's a company that's trading at a very low market cap, which leaves a very great entry point for a mine that could be producing by the last quarter of 2008 and certainly full production by the first quarter of 2009.




James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and other publications. His focus on the uranium mining and nuclear fuel sector resulted in the widely popular “Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market,” which is now available on [http://www.stockinterview.com] and on http://www.amazon.com

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